Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
It's back, everything is back! After being elected President of the United States last November, the "Trump effect" has taken effect again, forcibly pulling the Altcoin market, which was gradually turning bearish, back into a bullish rhythm.
Last night around 11 pm, Trump posted on Truth Social a message stating: "I am directing the Presidential Working Group on Financial Markets to advance a cryptocurrency strategy, including XRP, SOL and ADA. I will ensure that America becomes the world capital of Cryptocurrency. We are going to make America great again!" He then added: "Clearly, BTC and ETH, like other valuable cryptocurrencies, will be the core of the reserves. I also like Bitcoin and Ethereum!" White House AI and Cryptocurrency Advisor David Sacks quickly stated that "the cryptocurrency reserves may add more valuable cryptocurrencies".
Odaily Planet Daily will provide a brief analysis of this cryptocurrency reserve news in this article, and sort out the views of market participants for readers' reference.
The market is heating up rapidly: BTC, ETH, SOL have fallen sharply but recovered, XRP and ADA have risen more than 20% in 24 hours
According to Coingecko data, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently reported at $3.2 trillion; According to OKX market data, as of the time of writing,
BTC price once rebounded to around $95,000, and is currently around $92,900, up 7.42% in 24 hours;
ETH price once broke through $2,500, and is currently around $2,400, up 9.69% in 24 hours;
SOL price once approached $180, and is currently around $171, up 18.2% in 24 hours;
XRP price once approached $3, and is currently around $2.8, up 24.22% in 24 hours;
ADA price once broke through $1.1, and is still around $1.07, maintaining a 24-hour increase of over 60%.
Previously, after Trump sounded the "trade war" bugle and other factors, the Altcoin market and the stock market experienced a flash crash, with BTC price once falling below $80,000 to $78,000; ETH price once fell below $2,100 to around $2,000; But now, thanks to Trump's "second strike", the Altcoin market has risen sharply, making one can't help but exclaim: "It's Trump who makes it, and it's Trump who breaks it. The safety and danger of cryptocurrencies all depend on the President."
Although the market sentiment has ushered in a new wave of surges, the Altcoin market has not yet emerged from the deep water, but is facing the "major test" of the next wave.
On March 7, Trump will host the first White House Cryptocurrency Summit, bringing together industry leaders to discuss regulatory policies, stablecoin supervision, and the potential role of Bitcoin in the US financial system. According to a previous announcement by White House AI and Cryptocurrency Special Advisor David Sacks, the attendees will include "well-known founders, CEOs and investors from the cryptocurrency industry", as well as members of the President's Digital Asset Working Group. Sacks was appointed as the White House Special Advisor on AI and Cryptocurrency on December 6, 2024, responsible for "developing a legal framework to provide the clarity the cryptocurrency industry needs and allow it to thrive in America".
It is worth noting that at least 24 states have already proposed legislation related to potential Bitcoin reserves.
The upcoming summit may set the tone for cryptocurrency regulation over the next four years.
In addition, market participants have mixed attitudes towards Trump's "shill" behavior in urging the promotion of cryptocurrency reserves, and it is not a one-sided optimistic view.
Market participants: Trump's statement is for political purposes, and this move may pave the way for BTC strategic reserves
After Trump's statement, many Altcoin market participants have also expressed their own attitudes and related views. Currently, most people believe that Trump's move is not really "for the benefit of the cryptocurrency industry", but more "to serve his own political life". Here are some representative views:
Arthur Hayes: Cryptocurrency reserves are just talk, the US has no budget
Regarding the "cryptocurrency reserves" issue, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes commented: "There's nothing new here, it's just talk. Let's wait until the crypto working group gets Congressional approval to borrow money or revalue gold before we talk about it. Without that, they have no money to buy Bitcoin and Altcoins."
Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin may be the best choice for strategic reserves
Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong commented on social media about "Trump is pushing a cryptocurrency reserve plan" saying that in terms of asset allocation for strategic reserves, Bitcoin may be the best choice, as the successor to gold, Bitcoin has the simplest and clearest narrative. If people want more varieties, they can do a market cap-weighted index of crypto assets to keep it fair, but just choosing Bitcoin may be the simplest.
Consensys founder: Thank Trump for the epic shill, previously deeply educated his team on Ethereum
Consensys founder and Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin wrote that he greatly praised Trump's "shill" behavior, calling it an epic shill, and that President Trump is a quick-reacting and confident leader, thank you.
Joseph Lubin explained that he and his colleagues at Consensys spent a lot of time in Washington, D.C. before and after the November 5th election, to help the Trump administration understand the status, maturity and capabilities of Ethereum. The Trump family is very enthusiastic about building many businesses on Ethereum. Of course, they will use other chains and tokens judiciously, but besides holding BTC, there is no other platform that is a prudent choice for high-value projects, such as DeFi and RWA.
Taproot Wizards founder: Proposing an "Altcoin strategic reserve" is a typical Trump negotiation tactic
Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske reposted the views of Taproot Wizards founder Udi Wertheimer.
Udi Wertheimer said that so far, the best interpretation of the strategic reserve is that this is just a typical Trump negotiation tactic. To achieve a real reserve, Trump must convince Congress, he cannot decide it himself. Whenever Trump needs to convince other stakeholders, he always starts with an absurd proposal, and then he can retreat, such as his previous Gaza plan, annexing Canada, and now the ADA strategic reserve. So in Trump's "chess game language", this means he is telling Congress: if you don't agree to a Bitcoin reserve, I'll propose even more outrageous terms.
Bitwise CEO: The imaginary crypto strategic reserve only includes Bitcoin
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote that "seeing Trump's statement today, like many others, my imaginary strategic reserve is just Bitcoin, which makes the most sense to me. Many Altcoins have advantages, but we're not talking about a US portfolio here, we're talking about a reserve, and Bitcoin is the undisputed store of value in the digital age. Of course, I'm grateful for the new administration's constructive approach to this field. Looking forward to learning more ideas here."
CZ: Trump will also include "other" Altcoins in the crypto reserve, no need to over-interpret
Binance co-founder CZ wrote that Trump mentioned "BTC, ETH and other valuable Altcoins will be included in the crypto strategic reserve", and now the market's attention is focused on the word "other", wondering which Altcoins will be included, but hopes to remain calm, no need to over-analyze, more "valuable Altcoins" may be added over time, and more countries may follow suit. In addition, CZ also stated that he hopes the community will seize the "buy the dip" opportunity, but remember that any decision and operation should be done by yourself.
In summary, due to the launch of the official Meme coin Trump before Trump took office and the delayed response to crypto policy after taking office, most market participants currently hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards Trump's "crypto reserve" statement, and are more inclined to his ability to promote BTC as a crypto reserve. Trump's initiative to promote a crypto reserve is also worth pondering, because if he really wants to push for actual implementation, Trump either needs to convince the Federal Reserve or implement it through the Treasury Department, both of which face various obstacles or time constraints, as we have discussed in detail in the previous article 《Trump's Commerce Secretary Teams Up with Tether, the Outlines of the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Emerge》.
As of now, the probability of "Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of taking office" on Polymarket has risen to 21%, with a betting amount of around $7.74 million. On January 20, the day Trump was sworn in as president, the probability of this bet had once reached 48%.
Polymarket indicator
Conclusion: Trump is well-versed in the "art of negotiation", and the crypto market has become a vassal of US politics
Mr. Lu Xun once mentioned in his 1927 article "The Silent China": "The temperament of the Chinese is always inclined to reconciliation and compromise. For example, if you say the room is too dark and propose to open a skylight here, everyone will certainly not allow it. But if you propose to demolish the roof, they will come to compromise and agree to open the skylight."
In fact, this is a "negotiation tactic" that is universally applicable worldwide, and Trump's repeated crypto-friendly statements are a manifestation of his mastery of this technique. Because he understands that pushing for a crypto reserve strategy will inevitably face a series of obstacles, especially now that the Republicans do not have an overwhelming advantage in seats in both houses of Congress.
Nevertheless, it is undeniable that after the mainstream position of stablecoins like USDT and USDC, and the listing of BTC and ETH spot ETFs on the US stock market, Trump's inauguration, the launch of the official Meme coin, and the establishment of a crypto advisory committee have further strengthened the influence of US politics on the crypto market.
To a certain extent, the crypto market has become a bargaining chip in the power struggle of the US political arena.
