Gold and Bitcoin, Together Again in 4 Weeks… Expectations for ‘Follow-up Rally’ in Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are moving in a similar pattern after adjusting with a time difference over 4 weeks. As gold, a safe-haven asset, was shaken by the tariff bomb from former U.S. President Donald Trump, BTC, also called 'digital gold', is showing a sympathetic phenomenon.

According to Glassnode, a virtual asset data analysis company, on the 6th based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the 30-day correlation coefficient between BTC and gold was 0.18. The two assets maintained a negative correlation for about 4 weeks since the 15th of last month. Recently, they have transitioned to a positive correlation, moving in the same direction. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to +1, with a value closer to +1 indicating that the price movements of the two assets are similar.



Gold spot prices, which soared to an all-time high of $3,167.83 per ounce on the 3rd, dropped to $3,023.37 as of 4:49 PM on the 7th. This is a decline of about 4.56% in just 4 days. With the former president announcing plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries worldwide, even the safe-haven asset gold was exposed to selling pressure. During the same period, BTC showed a solid trend between $82,000-$83,000 before dropping sharply. BTC, which fell to the $74,000 range, slightly recovered and was trading around $75,400 at the same time.

Some analyses suggest that this pattern is similar to previous trends where gold prices move first, followed by BTC. Cointelegraph noted, "Gold rose about 15% from the end of 2018 to mid-2019, after which BTC surged 170% in early 2019 and continued its upward trend, soaring over 344% by the end of 2020," diagnosing that there have been previous instances where gold moved first and BTC followed.

However, market uncertainty appears to be growing. On the same day, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent emphasized in an NBC interview about the countries subject to reciprocal tariffs, "They have been behaving badly for a long time, and this is not an issue that can be negotiated in a few days or weeks."

Some argue that while gold limited its decline at a certain level, BTC recorded a relatively larger drop, revealing the difference from safe-haven assets. Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, told Decrypt, "Cryptocurrencies are starting to collapse" and "Investors are liquidating even profitable assets to cover losses in other markets." He claimed that this decline is "a case that shows BTC is not a safe-haven asset, but just another risky asset."

Do Yeri Reporter

yeri.do@sedaily.com