As the trade war between the United States and China intensifies again, the global risk asset market continues to show an unstable trend. However, Bitcoin (BTC) is maintaining a relatively stable movement by defending its key short-term support line of $73,777. Amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market is seeking new momentum.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently predicted on X (formerly Twitter) that if the People's Bank of China (PBOC) chooses a weak yuan policy, it could be a key catalyst for the next cryptocurrency market bull run. He mentioned past cases in 2013 and 2015 when Chinese capital flowed into Bitcoin in response to foreign exchange policy changes, suggesting a similar trend could be repeated in 2025.
The current market is difficult to predict. Investors are moving to reduce risks considering this uncertainty. A report by Farside Investors supports this, indicating a net outflow of $595.9 million (approximately 87.04 billion won) from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past four trading days.
The immediate concern is whether Bitcoin can maintain its short-term support line of $73,777. The recent April 8th rebound attempt failed, and it faced strong selling pressure near the 20-day exponential moving average ($82,218). Bearish sentiment still dominates the market, with selling pressure continuing in major rebound zones.
Statistically, a positive divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the downward trend may weaken. However, if the $73,777 level collapses, Bitcoin's price could quickly drop to the $67,000 support zone, with potential further correction to $65,000. Conversely, breaking above the 50-day simple moving average ($85,703) could be interpreted as a signal that the correction phase is ending.
Ethereum (ETH) has reached a trading price of $1,368 amid a long-term downward trend, with a possibility of a short-term rebound. However, the 20-day exponential moving average ($1,786) may act as a strong resistance, and failure to break this level could restart the downward trend. If the support line breaks, Ethereum risks falling to $1,150.
XRP has strengthened its selling pressure after failing to break the $2 level. If $1.61 is breached, the decline could extend to $1.27. However, breaking above the 20-day exponential moving average of $2.10 could alleviate downward pressure and suggest a potential rebound.
BNB is currently attempting to raise its peak around $520. However, the downward trend line remains a strong resistance, suggesting continued adjustment. $460 is a key support line, and breaking this could lead to a fall to $400.
Solana (SOL) is establishing support below $110 but is expected to face strong selling pressure in the $110-$120 range if it rises. Breaking the support line could cause a sharp decline to $95 or even $80, but breaking $120 could potentially lead to a rebound to $180 via $135.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is experiencing intense buying and selling around the $0.14 support line. A decline could see further adjustment to $0.10, while breaking $0.20 could complete a double bottom pattern and potentially rise to $0.26.
Cardano (ADA) is attempting to maintain support at $0.50 but is likely to face selling pressure at the 20-day exponential moving average ($0.65). Failing to break this level could lead to further correction below $0.40.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) may face selling pressure at the 20-day exponential moving average of $9.36, with potential decline to $8.30 if the $8.80 support line breaks. Conversely, maintaining above the 20-day exponential moving average could allow testing the $9.90 resistance.
Chainlink (LINK) is attempting to rebound from the lower support of its downward channel but needs to break the 50-day simple moving average ($14.50) to rise. Otherwise, it could fall to the next support line at $8.
Toncoin (TON) is finding support at $2.84 but shows weak rebound momentum. Trading below the 20-day exponential moving average ($3.41), it could be pushed to $2.35 if unable to break this level. To rebound, it needs to quickly break above the moving average.
Experts suggest that expanding geopolitical risks and global monetary policy uncertainties are increasing pressure on cryptocurrency prices, and expect continued volatility centered around technical support and resistance lines in the near term.
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