From April 3rd to 10th, a total net outflow of $872 million (approximately 1.2735 trillion won) occurred in spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs in the United States, raising concerns about investor disengagement. During this period, the analysis suggests that selling pressure increased as global trade conflicts intensified and economic recession possibilities spread. Particularly on April 11th and 14th, net capital flows dropped to below $2 million each day, reflecting market wait-and-see sentiment.
Bitcoin price has remained relatively stable around $83,000 over the past five weeks. While some interpret this price stability as a signal that Bitcoin is evolving into a more mature asset, others argue that it indicates a loss of vitality due to weak buying and selling intentions from market participants. Notably, Bitcoin's maximum decline this year has been around 32%, compared to some S&P500 stocks that have fallen over 40% from their peaks.
Meanwhile, the narrative of Bitcoin as an "inflation hedge" or "digital gold" is being challenged by gold's strong performance. Gold has risen 23% this year and reached an all-time high of $3,245 on April 11th. Despite Bitcoin recording a 4% higher return than the S&P500 during the same period, institutional investors are noting that Bitcoin still lacks correlation with other assets and fails to gain trust as a "store of value".
However, it seems premature to conclude that demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has disappeared. As of April 14th, the daily trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs was $2.24 billion (approximately 3.2704 trillion won), which is an 18% decline from the 30-day average of $2.75 billion but still remains robust. This is significant considering the US spot ETFs were launched in January 2024.
Currently, Bitcoin ETF's daily trading volume is lower than SPDR S&P500 ETF's (SPY) $54 billion but higher than gold ETF's $5.3 billion and US Treasury ETF's $2.1 billion. In terms of assets under management, spot Bitcoin ETFs' total assets are approximately $94.6 billion (about 138 trillion won), exceeding the market capitalization of global corporations like British American Tobacco, UBS, and BNP Paribas.
The ETF investor list includes major global institutional investors such as Brevan Howard, DE Shaw, Apollo Management, Mubadala Investment, and Wisconsin State Pension. This demonstrates that Bitcoin is establishing itself as an alternative to traditional assets, regardless of short-term price fluctuations.
Future expectations include potential passive fund inflows if Bitcoin-based futures and options products expand, and if Bitcoin is incorporated into global indices as a commodity or currency asset. Therefore, assessments suggest it is difficult to conclude that the recent net outflow will lead to long-term weakness.
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