Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be on the verge of significant volatility. According to CryptoQuant, approximately 170,000 BTC (worth about $1.4 billion) has been moved from wallets with a holding period of 3-6 months.
CryptoQuant analyzed that large fund movements by medium-term Bitcoin holders could signal major price fluctuations. Historical cases show such wallet movements occurred just before upward rallies (green boxes) or sharp declines (red boxes).
Medium-term holders are more sensitive than long-term investors but more stable than short-term traders, playing a crucial role during market transitions. These patterns were also observed before Bitcoin's bull market in 2021 and the crash in 2022. Analysts warn that while the direction is unclear, significant volatility is expected.
Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $75,000 and $87,000 due to global trade tensions triggered by Trump's tariff policies. This is exacerbating market uncertainty and impacting investor confidence.
Meanwhile, according to Glassnode data, whales and large investors are showing strong buying pressure despite economic headwinds. Currently, the accumulation rate of whales and sharks exceeds the annual issuance by 3 times, which is the fastest pace in Bitcoin's history. Large withdrawals from exchanges also indicate a shift towards long-term holding and self-custody.
According to the latest data from Luokchain, a wallet related to Abraxas Capital recently withdrew 505 BTC (approximately $42 million) from Binance. This wallet has withdrawn a total of 2,949 BTC (about $259 million) over the past four days, demonstrating institutional confidence in Bitcoin.
Analyst Scott Melker noted that Bitcoin recently recorded a strong daily candle above the 50-day moving average for the first time in months. While this could be a positive signal for a short-term trend reversal, the analysis suggests it lacks credibility due to low trading volume.
Melker emphasized that for Bitcoin to show actual strength, it needs to break through $88,804 and the 200-day moving average with more buying pressure. Analyst Ali Martinez projected in a recent post that Bitcoin is currently moving within a narrow range, and breaking above $86,000 or falling below $83,000 will determine the next significant movement.
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