Binance's research department announced on the 18th an analysis of the impact of large-scale U.S. Treasury supply on the cryptocurrency market.
It pointed out that the bidding size, including refinancing, in the U.S. Treasury market is expected to exceed 31 trillion dollars (approximately 4,400 trillion won) in 2025. It stated that the pressure to find demand for this is increasing.
31 trillion dollars is approximately 109% of the predicted U.S. GDP in 2025 and 144% of M2 (cash and deposit circulation). It explained that this is close to the highest historical ratio, demonstrating the need for large-scale funding.
It noted that overseas holders own about one-third of U.S. Treasuries. It analyzed that if overseas holding willingness decreases or sales proceed due to factors like Trump's tariff policies or portfolio rebalancing, U.S. Treasury rates might rise to create demand.
Recently, countries like Russia and China are reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and redistributing to assets like gold.
Binance expected that even if overseas demand remains stable, the issuance scale itself is large, so interest rate pressure will occur throughout 2025.
Regarding the impact on the cryptocurrency market, Binance analyzed that interest rate pressure could limit the rise of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
However, it also suggested that if the U.S. government ultimately chooses monetary issuance to cover fiscal deficits, investors holding assets like Bitcoin (BTC) might increase as a hedge against currency value decline.
There are past cases where the cryptocurrency market rose when countries implemented financial easing after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
BlackRock, a financial giant issuing Bitcoin spot ETFs, stated in September last year that its customers perceive Bitcoin as a contingency for the U.S. debt crisis.
It pointed out that as concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and debt increase, the attractiveness of alternative value storage assets like Bitcoin is rising as a hedge.
Meanwhile, although Bitcoin is called 'digital gold', there is a perspective that it currently struggles to become a safe asset like gold.
Real-time news...Go to Token Post Telegram
<Copyright ⓒ TokenPost, Unauthorized Reproduction and Redistribution Prohibited>
