Coinbase warned that the cryptocurrency market could enter a new 'crypto winter' due to global economic pressure and market structural weakness. As technical weakness signals for Bitcoin and major tokens become a reality, investors are being called to respond cautiously.
According to CryptoPotatoe on the 20th (local time), Coinbase analyzed that the cryptocurrency market is entering a new downturn due to the combined impact of structural factors and macroeconomic pressures. Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin is $95 billion, a 41% drop from the peak of $160 billion in December 2024. This is lower than the level recorded between August 2021 and April 2022, reflecting a significant deterioration in investment sentiment. Both Bitcoin and the COIN50 index tracking the top 50 tokens have fallen below the 200-day moving average, strengthening technical weakness signals.
Coinbase diagnosed that the re-expansion of global trade tensions and deepening fiscal tightening are fueling market weakness. Venture capital investment slightly rebounded in the first quarter of 2025 but remains 50-60% lower compared to the strong market of 2021-2022, with altcoin projects particularly impacted by the decrease in speculative capital inflows. David Duong, Global Research Head at Coinbase, emphasized that these indicators are similar to early signs of past crypto winters and stressed the need for a more defensive investment strategy. He projected that while the market might stabilize somewhat in the latter half of the second quarter this year, a broad recovery will take time due to macroeconomic uncertainty and poor traditional stock market performance.
Institutional investors are raising similar concerns. The crypto data platform Ecoinometrics assessed short-term rise expectations low due to weak demand, financial condition tightening, and lack of signs of changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. ETF market trends also support this. Steady capital outflows have continued since late March, with net inflows over the past 30 days being close to zero. Consequently, if market volatility expands again, there are possibilities of additional downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
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