ARK Invest, the most optimistic about Bitcoin, recently issued the "2025 big ideas" report, setting the Bitcoin bull market price target for 2030 at $1.5 million. At the end of the report, it was additionally noted that considering Bitcoin's active supply, the price could potentially reach $2.4 million.
Table of Contents
ToggleEstimating Bitcoin Price Based on Market Penetration Ratios
The price target in the report relies on assumptions about the total addressable market (TAM) and penetration rates discussed below.
- Institutional Investment: Primarily through spot ETF investments
- Digital Gold: Compared to gold, Bitcoin is a more flexible and transparent value storage method that will attract existing gold investors
- Emerging Market Investors: Seeking a safe haven that can protect them from inflation and currency depreciation
- National Bitcoin Strategic Reserves
- Corporate Bitcoin Reserves
- Bitcoin On-Chain Financial Services
BTC Price Could Reach $2.4 Million Considering Active Supply
In a supplementary analysis, ARK also incorporated Bitcoin's "active" supply into the aforementioned application scenarios, which is a method of adjusting for long-term held or lost Bitcoins. Based on the supply adjusted for activity, the bullish target price jumped from the original $1.5 million to $2.4 million.
Because "Bitcoin's scarcity and supply loss are not reflected in most valuation models today," ARK believes Bitcoin's upside potential could exceed previous predictions.
Cathie Wood: BTC Still in Bull Market
ARK's CEO Cathie Wood stated in a recent interview that the global reserve status of the US dollar is being challenged, with China's foreign exchange reserves dropping from $1.3 trillion to $700 billion being a clear signal. This has led many asset managers to start looking for hedging tools, with Bitcoin and gold becoming the primary considerations.
(Bitcoin Corporate Reserves! ARK's Cathie Wood, Strive, and other institutions explain why buying BTC is the best strategy)
Wood has also repeatedly mentioned Bitcoin's practical applications. She believes that while Bitcoin primarily serves as a Store of Value, its application in emerging markets is gradually increasing. Because local currencies are severely devalued, people are turning to Bitcoin and stablecoins for value preservation, strengthening its position in the global financial system.
She believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is still in the bull market phase and will reach $1.5 million before 2030.
(We're Still in a Bull Market! ARK's Cathie Wood: Bitcoin Could Reach $1.5 Million by 2030, Tesla, Coinbase, and Palantir Have Great Potential)
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all of your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
