Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Son warned about the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin (BTC). He cautioned that this risk is greater than many people think.
Son emphasized that quantum attacks will affect all forms of public key encryption and all cryptocurrencies. The potential solutions to protect Bitcoin are not yet optimal.
Quantum Computing, a Threat to Bitcoin?
For context, quantum computing threatens Bitcoin because it could potentially break cryptographic security. This includes elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and hash functions like SHA-256. Quantum computers can derive private keys from public keys, enabling unauthorized access.
Quantum-resistant cryptography is being developed, but the timing of a completely secure solution is uncertain. Nevertheless, not everyone is confident about the effectiveness of solutions to protect Bitcoin.
"Quantum is a bigger threat than people think, and the solutions for Bitcoin are worse than people think." – Son posted.
When asked about the likelihood of this threat emerging, Son admitted that no one knows exactly. This is one of the most challenging questions in this field.
"This is a 'national security' level question." – He argued.
Son suggested that by the time it happens, it will already be too late to respond. His recent concerns have resonated with many people.
ETF Store's chairman Nate Geraci reaffirmed his previous stance. He mentioned that Bitcoin, like other technologies, may develop vulnerabilities over time.
"The possibility of Bitcoin being hacked is not zero. If it can be created, it can be destroyed." – Geraci added.
Furthermore, some have predicted that quantum computing could lead to Bitcoin's ultimate decline.
"The best time to invest in Bitcoin was before 2020. I am actively researching the next Bitcoin-like assets." – Analyst Nishant Bhardwaj mentioned.
Meanwhile, these concerns have been intensified by recent advances in quantum technology. Chirag Jetani, founder and COO of Diamonte, recently emphasized that Google's quantum computer operates 241 million times faster than traditional computers.
"With just 4000 qubits, a quantum computer can decrypt Bitcoin's encryption in 10 minutes. By 2030, it will take just seconds." – He said.
Jetani also suggests that despite the risks of quantum computing, it offers tremendous opportunities. He outlined five ways quantum computing could transform blockchain by 2030:
- Quantum-resistant cryptography: Developing encryption secure against quantum computers. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on this.
- Quantum-enhanced smart contracts: Quantum computing can enable smarter, more adaptable contracts with faster, more autonomous decisions.
- Quantum random number generation: Blockchain can use quantum randomness for secure voting, fair gambling, and tamper-proof processes.
- Quantum secure identity systems: Quantum computing can ensure unhackable digital identities to protect personal data.
- Quantum-based DeFi: Quantum computing could improve DeFi with instant settlements, advanced financial modeling, and real-time risk assessment.
"We need to start moving assets to quantum-resistant systems now. By 2030, it will be too late." – Jetani warned.
Can Bitcoin Survive in the Quantum Computing Era?
Despite the warnings, some remain hopeful. Previously, Tether's CEO Paolo Ardoino predicted that quantum computing is unlikely to pose a significant threat to Bitcoin's encryption. He believes quantum-resistant addresses will be added to Bitcoin before serious risks emerge.
Quantum computing research company Project 11 also emphasized that quantum computers capable of posing a real threat to proof of work are not expected for at least 10 years. According to the company, Bitcoin is vulnerable to future quantum computing developments, but has the potential to evolve and survive through technological upgrades and adaptation.
"BTC can withstand quantum computing. It will be difficult and controversial, and will be discussed. But the network can be upgraded in time. The last important fork was Taproot, and post-quantum cryptography is next." – The company explained.
Project 11 pointed out the development of quantum-resistant algorithms to prevent attacks. They emphasized that NIST has drafted several standards, including lattice and hash-based approaches.
Additionally, the company mentioned several libraries that can implement post-quantum cryptography (PQC). However, signature size, transactions per second (TPS), and block size could pose challenges.
The company clarified that while quantum computers may not immediately steal Bitcoin, the first capable system could compromise private keys over time.
"The security and validity of Bitcoin currently depend on cryptography, which can be broken by Shor's algorithm. Even slow quantum computers can accumulate private keys, and their mere existence could trigger a massive exodus," as stated in the post.
As time passes, the survival of Bitcoin depends on its ability to quickly respond to quantum developments. It must maintain innovation while preserving the decentralized spirit.
