Bitcoin (BTC) Hits 10-Week High on ETF Fund Inflows… But Markets Are in ‘Cautionary Mode’

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to a 10-week high of $97,930 (approximately 143.1 million won) on May 1st, breaking through the 93,000-95,600 dollar range where it had been trapped for the past six days. However, despite this technical breakthrough, the derivatives market atmosphere remains neutral. The price surge coincided with clear capital inflows from institutional investors into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, but market participants still maintain a reserved stance on the sustainability of the upward trend. In fact, $3.6 billion (approximately 5.256 trillion won) has flowed into the US spot BTC ETF in recent days, but price distortion indicators in the futures market show that there is no clear buying pressure confident in a bull market. Particularly in the options market, while call options are dominant based on expiration dates, leverage usage remains limited, creating an atmosphere where even large investors are approaching cautiously. Macroeconomic variables and geopolitical uncertainties are also suppressing investment sentiment. Especially, the global trade tariff policy emphasized by Trump is reportedly putting downward pressure on major economic indicators by affecting each country's import and export environment. Consequently, concerns are raised that if an economic recession becomes a reality, it could constrain Bitcoin's long-term price appreciation momentum. Market experts, while still believing there is room for further increase, maintain a cautious position on the possibility of BTC surpassing $110,000 by 2025. In the short term, while the positive factor of ETF capital inflow remains valid, structural selling pressure and an opaque macroeconomic environment could limit a strong rally.