Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) reached a new high of 64.98% in the first week of May, the highest level since 2021. Bitcoin Dominance is measured by the ratio of BTC's market capitalization to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.
Some experienced analysts expect this to trigger an altcoin recovery, while others remain skeptical.
Bitcoin Dominance Approaching 65%... Analysts' Opinions Divided
Analysts have long monitored BTC.D as a key indicator for predicting the altcoin season. The 65% level also represents a significant historical resistance and is a critical threshold that many analysts are watching carefully.
Analyst Darky believes 65% could be the peak of BTC.D, anticipating a sharp decline at this point. If this occurs, it suggests altcoins are ready to rise. The altcoin season typically begins when capital rotates from Bitcoin to altcoins, ultimately pulling BTC.D down to a support zone around 39%.
"BTC dominance will drop sharply. Fill up on altcoins," Darky predicted.
Beyond the technical signal of 65% being strong resistance, some analysts point to the rising wedge pattern forming in BTC.D. This classic chart pattern typically signals a reversal and supports a strong correction in Bitcoin dominance.
Other analysts also support the possibility of an upcoming altcoin season but take a more cautious stance. For example, Milk Road argues that altcoins are still struggling and suggests that BTC.D must exceed 70% before a true rotation to altcoins can begin.
"Only 17% of altcoins have outperformed BTC in the past 90 days. This is not a rotation. This shows BTC dominance is taking control. The altcoin season won't start until this number exceeds 70%. Not yet," Milk Road said.
BTC.D rose from 64.4% to 65% in the first week of May, with total market capitalization decreasing from $3 trillion to $2.87 trillion. This suggests capital is leaving the market more from altcoins than Bitcoin, not yet supporting a true altcoin season.
Predicting Altcoin Season Requires More Than Bitcoin Dominance
Over the past three years, BTC.D has steadily risen from 39% to 65%. During this period, most predictions about the altcoin season were inaccurate and disappointing. As a result, many investors suffered larger losses in their altcoin portfolios.
This long-term rise in BTC.D has raised increasing skepticism. Some of these doubts have valid arguments. Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, believes institutional investor participation has fundamentally changed the cycle.
"BTC dominance has hit a new cycle high. In this cycle, when BlackRock and Saylor buy Bitcoin, they just hold. They don't exchange it for altcoins," Thomas Fahrer said.
Nick, co-founder of Coinbase, provided deeper insights. He argued that predicting the altcoin season requires more than just tracking BTC.D. Other macro and on-chain factors must align.
He noted that historically, altcoin seasons tend to start about 320 days after Bitcoin's bottom, which aligns with the current time (May 2025). However, conditions such as quantitative easing, retail investor interest in altcoins, and blockchain developer activity have not yet been met.
"What's needed before a true altcoin season starts: BTC dominance drops below 54%. The Fed officially ends QT and signals rate cuts. Capital flows into altcoins while Bitcoin maintains new highs — not leaving altcoins. Until then? I think all rises are just noise," Nick predicted.
At the time of writing, the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) is $807 billion, a 28% decrease compared to the beginning of the year.
