Bitcoin (BTC) faces an important weekend as high-level trade talks between the United States and China take place in Switzerland. These talks are overshadowed by distrust, confrontational narratives, and a lack of compromise on tariffs.
The cryptocurrency market, already experiencing macroeconomic headwinds and reduced liquidity, could see the talks' outcome or breakdown trigger sharp price movements heading into Monday.
US-China Trade Talks Signal Bitcoin Volatility
Due to low weekend trading volumes, Bitcoin may experience significant volatility between May 10th and 11th. The US Treasury Secretary recently announced plans to meet with China's Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland for two days.
This meeting will be the first official trade talks since the president raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. The outcome or breakdown of the talks could exacerbate weekend volatility.
"Thanks to the president, the world is coming to the US, and China is the missing piece. We will meet on Saturday and Sunday to discuss our common interests. Current tariffs and trade barriers are unsustainable, but we do not want to separate. What we want is fair trade." – Bessent's statement.
On Thursday, the Chinese Embassy in Washington issued a direct statement ahead of the talks. The spokesperson directly refuted the US claims about who initiated the talks.
"The talks are being held at the request of the US side... China will never accept a situation where words and actions do not match." – Statement excerpt.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry echoed this message through spokesperson Lin Jian.
"Pressuring or coercing China in any way will be ineffective. We will firmly defend our legitimate interests and uphold international fairness and justice." – Jian's post.
These rhetorics suggest Beijing harbors deep skepticism about US intentions, especially after Washington reaffirmed it would not reduce tariffs before the talks.
Neither side has presented specific concessions ahead of the talks. As a result, cryptocurrency traders worry the summit might end in another diplomatic deadlock.
Bitcoin remains particularly exposed, still tied to global risk sentiment as it approaches $100,000.
Any hint of escalating tension could act as a volatility catalyst. Conversely, even a symbolic thawing of relations could trigger a relief rally.
The broader macroeconomic backdrop is also changing. According to BeInCrypto, China has lowered interest rates and strengthened liquidity injection as part of a broader push to offset domestic economic slowdown.
These stimulus efforts may have a positive impact on risk assets, but geopolitical friction could overwhelm those signals.
Cryptocurrency traders are concerned whether China's monetary easing can offset the burden of an unresolved trade war.
Adding to speculation, the US president Donald Trump previewed a "very important trade agreement" announcement on Friday. He mentioned it involves a "big and very respected country" without specifically naming China, but the timing is noteworthy.
"Tomorrow at 10am, in the Oval Office, a press conference with representatives of major countries related to a big trade agreement. First of many." – Trump's post.
As market participants price in weekend volatility, Bitcoin may once again serve as a real-time indicator of geopolitical risk.
If the Swiss talks provide a modest roadmap forward, cryptocurrencies could benefit from restored investor confidence. However, if the talks crumble due to distrust and tariff rigidity, massive liquidations and a sharp move to safe-haven assets could follow.
This weekend, Bitcoin will be trading not just charts, but global power dynamics.
