Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Now, many people seem to be watching the market prices every day, especially those who are fully invested in Altcoins. Some are considering whether to cut their losses, while others are still hoping for a price increase to break even...
Recently, most messages received in the backend are about price and what to buy, such as: Will Bitcoin really rise to $150,000? Do I have a chance to break even with my Ethereum at a cost of $3,800? I heard the Altcoin season is coming, what coins are recommended to buy now? And so on.
By looking at the user information in the public account backend, I found that most of those who raised these questions are new followers of Talk Li Talk Outside. Perhaps these new partners are not confident in their investment, and therefore place their hopes of making money (or breaking even) directly on the opinions or suggestions others might provide.
At the same time, I also discovered another interesting phenomenon. Since the new market trend restarted last month (April), the average number of unfollows per day is greater than the number of new followers. In other words, during the past more than a month, the total number of followers in the backend has not only not grown but has slightly decreased.
However, I think this is quite good. Everyone should make choices suitable for themselves and appropriately reduce interference from others on their investment strategies. To be honest, Talk Li Talk Outside has always insisted on long-form text output, which may not be suitable for everyone to follow. After all, in this era of massive information, there are relatively fewer people who can calm down and patiently spend time reading long articles. Some like fast food, some like Chinese meals, this is just a matter of choice. We will continue to output in a Buddhist-like manner, and everyone can follow as they wish.
In fact, learning is often a process of going from many to few. For example, many people initially follow dozens or even hundreds of bloggers, or join dozens of different circles. Then, as they slowly form and establish a set of investment strategies or methodologies suitable for themselves, they may choose to start filtering and blocking out most of the ineffective information interference and exit most circles, thereby maintaining better personal thinking and focus.
In short, everyone's background, experience, risk tolerance, and other factors differ greatly. Moreover, everyone's thinking model, knowledge experience, observation perspective, and interest demands are different. Different perspectives may lead to different views on issues, so many problems do not need to be judged as right or wrong. Different people should make different choices, and only what suits oneself is the best. Especially in the investment field, we should not always fantasize about pursuing a universal, lazy-friendly, and one-size-fits-all money-making model. True money-making models all have certain thresholds, such as capital thresholds, time thresholds, cognitive thresholds, and so on.
In the previous article (May 12th), we mainly discussed some macro factors affecting market trends. But regarding market trends, some people like to focus on macro factors, while others prefer to focus on some data or indicators. Next, we might as well list some from the data/indicator dimension:
For example, we can pay attention to changes in Funding Rates, as shown in the following figure.
Because with the recent market recovery, there will be more bullish traders willing to pay fees to bearish traders, so we can observe the short-term market trend by watching changes in funding rates.
For instance, we can also focus on changes in Open Interest, as shown in the following figure.
Open Interest can be an observation dimension of trading activity. We can observe whether traders still have short-term trading interest by looking at the range changes of maintained open interest.
For example, we can observe changes in Stablecoin Inflows, as shown in the following figure.
If there is no obvious fund outflow (negative inflow), it may mean that traders are still rotating funds between various projects, and there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations.
Or, we can also judge market changes through trading volume changes between CEX and DEX, seeing whether DEX trading volume has recently increased. An increase usually means strong current market demand and upward momentum, as shown in the following figure.
In short, different risk appetites correspond to different investment styles, and different investment styles have various information or data dimensions that can be used as auxiliary references. These can be divided into long-term and medium-to-short-term investment perspectives.
The funding rates, open interest, and stablecoin inflows we mentioned above can be used as medium-to-short-term reference dimensions. Additionally, you can record and summarize many other reference dimensions, such as the ETH/BTC ratio, BTC.D, USDT.D, Fear & Greed Index, Altseason Index, Speculative Sentiment Index, etc., which we have previously shared and introduced.
If you are interested in long-term indicators for Bitcoin, you can directly use the "Bitcoin Indicator Template" we previously compiled, which includes over 35 comprehensive indicator data to observe and guide long-term Bitcoin trading, as shown in the following figure.
Of course, most people now probably prefer to guide their trading directly through candlestick charts, which is absolutely fine. Our previous articles have also organized some basic candlestick knowledge, and interested friends can continue to search and review Talk Li Talk Outside's historical articles.
Here, let's take BTC as an example to briefly look at the candlestick trend:
From the weekly level, MACD has crossed, showing a good upward trend. The current Bitcoin is also trying to touch the historical high price. Combining the current market sentiment, Bitcoin may enter a sideways consolidation after touching or breaking through the historical new high in the short term, and BTC.D may continue to decline. However, the weekly level has formed an FVG gap (the red box area I marked), and the position around $93,000 needs attention. But it seems unlikely to drop to the next FVG position (around $80,000) in the short term, as shown in the following figure.
Let's continue to look at the 4-hour level. The area around $98,000 is a position that needs attention, but if it pulls back to this position, it will likely rebound again. Then there's the position around $93,000, and it's not ruled out that these two positions will be filled, as shown in the following figure.
Similarly, if you are more concerned about ETH's short-term price, you can refer to the above method to make your own judgment. Currently, ETH looks like $2,700-$2,900 is a resistance zone, and this zone may also be accompanied by significant selling pressure (there should be many trapped positions at this level). If it goes down, the short-term position to watch looks like it will be around $2,200.
However, it needs to be emphasized again that although we have briefly discussed the candlestick trend, this is only a discussion and reference in terms of thinking, not investment guidance or advice. Short-term market trends cannot be predicted, and you need to make your own judgment based on your risk appetite and position.
Personally, apart from the need to write articles daily, I rarely look at K-lines, and even when I do, it's just a simple glance at the weekly level. I'm not suitable to be a trader/analyst, nor am I suited for short-term trading. Doing simple things and being a simple person is my current pursuit.
So, what is your pursuit? What trading style do you belong to? Do you have any corresponding long-term or medium-to-short-term reference dimensions to guide your trading?
Let's discuss these today. The sources of pictures/data involved in the main text have been supplemented in the Notion, and the above content is just a personal perspective and analysis, solely for learning and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.
Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bLnF9xuZtrMgza9tfN5Zdw
