The market, project, currency, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
The market dividend since the third stage of the "reciprocal tariff war" has been exhausted.
With Trump's "Beautiful Big Plan" approved by the House of Representatives, the "US Debt Crisis" once again cooled the market's long sentiment, coupled with Trump's intention to impose additional tariffs on the EU again, creating a "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill situation in the United States.
Driven by capital inflow and the passage of the "Stablecoin Bill", BTC's long sentiment was high in the first half of the week, breaking through the "Trump bottom" and creating a new historical high in US dollars.
While fund inflows increased and selling also began to increase, the overall selling pressure remains small, indicating that BTC is still dominated by upward momentum and may temporarily adjust or end at any time.
Policies, Macroeconomic, and Economic Data
Since May, global risk traders have gradually adjusted their framework to the US economic and employment fundamentals and interest rate policy game. The "gray rhino" threatening the US economy and financial markets has reappeared this week.
The "Beautiful Big Bill" is a comprehensive fiscal legislation pushed by US President Trump, officially named the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act". The bill involves multiple areas such as taxation, immigration, healthcare, and border security, aiming to realize Trump's governance agenda through tax cuts and policy reforms. On May 22, the bill was approved by the US House of Representatives and has been transferred to the Senate for review.
The bill involves many areas, and the expanded expenditure and reduced taxation will ultimately require raising the US debt ceiling to 4 trillion dollars. This will increase the US debt ceiling from the current 36.1 trillion dollars to 40.1 trillion dollars. At that time, the maximum debt will reach 140% of GDP, creating a historical high.
This further dampens the market's confidence in the US government's debt repayment ability and willingness, and further reduces the attractiveness of US debt, which has now lost all top ratings from the three major rating agencies.
In response to the "Beautiful Big Bill", the anchor of global asset pricing, the US 10-year Treasury yield, once again jumped to a high of 4.5% this week. The high US debt yield will undoubtedly increase borrowing costs for enterprises and consumers, suppress investment and consumption, and ultimately affect corporate profitability, putting pressure on the stock market.
Affected by the House of Representatives' approval of the "Beautiful Big Bill", the three major stock indices this week stopped the rebound since the tariff war reversal and showed a downward trend, with Nasdaq -2.47%, S&P 500 -2.61%, and Dow Jones -2.47%.
The US dollar index turned from a four-week consecutive rise to a 1.03% decline, reaching 99.1252.
Gold once again became the beneficiary. London gold rose 1.98% this week, rising to $3,359.90 per ounce.
The final approval of the "Beautiful Big Bill" will take time, and its dynamics will undoubtedly become a major variable affecting the financial market in the near future.
Crypto Market
Driven by significant capital inflow through the BTC Spot ETF channel, increased holdings by listed companies, and the passage of the "Genius Bill", BTC was shrouded in optimistic sentiment and achieved a 7-week consecutive rise.
Before the panic sentiment caused by the House of Representatives' approval of the "Beautiful Big Bill", BTC achieved a historical breakthrough, creating a historical record in US dollar pricing - $112,000 per coin.
From a technical indicator perspective, it ran above the 5-week line throughout the week, with trading volume expanding, and the weekly MACD just rising above water. BTC's price ran above the first upward trend line throughout the week and tested the upper edge of the "Trump bottom" (90,000 ~ 110,000).
From a technical pattern perspective, BTC is still in a medium-term upward trend, but affected by the "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill and having achieved significant increases over multiple days, the market's long sentiment may experience some adjustment in a certain period.
On May 19, it passed the Senate procedural vote with a 66-32 vote, marking the imminent implementation of the US stablecoin regulatory framework. From a policy impact perspective, the "Genius Bill" (the "2025 US Stablecoin Innovation Guidance and Establishment Act") may be equivalent to the BTC Spot ETF approval in 2024.
The "Genius Bill" defines the definition, regulation, audit, consumer protection, and underlying asset requirements (US dollars in cash, short-term US Treasury bonds, and other highly liquid assets) for US dollar stablecoins. Although the US aims to promote the development of its blockchain industry, maintain the international status of the US dollar, increase dollar penetration, and alleviate the issuance pressure of US debt to some extent, it will undoubtedly also promote the development of stablecoins, the second-largest application after BTC in the blockchain.
On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council officially passed the "Stablecoins Bill", establishing a comprehensive licensing and regulatory framework for fiat-referenced stablecoins (FRS).
We believe that in terms of application scope and number of holders, stablecoins are likely to exceed BTC. The positive progress in stablecoins in the US and Hong Kong indicates that beyond value storage, the DApp applications or Web3 part based on smart contract platforms in the blockchain industry are also being recognized by governments. This is particularly important for the industry.
Capital Inflow and Outflow
Although the "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill once again dampened the US stock market, the trading enthusiasm in the crypto market seems to be able to stand alone.
It maintained positive capital inflow for 7 trading days, with a total inflow of $5.574 billion this week, including $2.548 billion in stablecoins, $2.775 billion in BTC Spot ETF, and $250 million in ETH Spot ETF.
Stablecoin and ETF channel capital flow statistics (weekly)
Since bottoming out and rebounding in early April, after the first round of significant inflow, the capital showed some hesitation after reaching $100,000. The significant capital inflow this week pushed BTC to challenge its historical high.
Selling Pressure and Selling
After BTC returned to the $100,000 mark, long holders once again started reducing positions, reversing the trend of gradually decreasing exchange inflows over the past five weeks. This week, 159,869.37 BTC flowed into exchanges. Centralized exchanges are still in an outflow state, with the balance dropping to 2,987,307 coins, but the outflow speed has slowed down.
Centralized digital currency exchange BTC inflow and outflow statistics (weekly)
As market stabilizers, the long holder group initiated reduction near the new high, with a reduction of 1,195.43 coins this week.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.75, in the upward period.
EMC Labs
EMC Labs was created by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. Focusing on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industrial foresight, insight, and data mining as its core competitiveness, it is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to humans.
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