QCP 分析指出，受宏观数据与消息面趋稳影响，主要资产类别波动率持续回落。美债收益率小幅下行，10 年与 30 年期国债分别跌破 4.5% 和 5.0%；日本 30 年期国债收益率亦降至 3% 以下。市场聚焦 6 月美国长债拍卖及日本今日发行的 40 年期 JGB。参议员 Lummis 就稳定币与比特币战略储备的发言引发关注，市场期待加密政策推进重启。

<div>QCP 分析指出，受宏观数据与消息面趋稳影响，主要资产类别波动率持续回落。美债收益率小幅下行，10 年与 30 年期国债分别跌破 4.5% 和 5.0%；日本 30 年期国债收益率亦降至 3% 以下。市场聚焦 6 月美国长债拍卖及日本今日发行的 40 年期 JGB。参议员 Lummis 就稳定币与比特币战略储备的发言引发关注，市场期待加密政策推进重启。<div> </div><br><br></div>

QCP：资产波动率走低，关注美日长债发行与加密政策进展

QCP analysis points out that due to stabilizing macroeconomic data and news sentiment, volatility of major asset classes continues to decline. U.S. Treasury yields slightly decreased, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds falling below 4.5% and 5.0% respectively; Japan's 30-year government bond yield also dropped below 3%. The market is focusing on the U.S. long-term bond auction in June and Japan's 40-year JGB issuance today. Senator <Lummis>'s remarks on stablecoin and Bitcoin strategic reserves have attracted attention, with the market anticipating a restart of crypto policy advancement.

<div>QCP analysis points out that due to stabilizing macroeconomic data and news sentiment, volatility of major asset classes continues to decline. US Treasury yields slightly decreased, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds falling below 4.5% and 5.0% respectively; Japan's 30-year government bond yield also dropped below 3%. The market is focusing on the US long-term bond auction in June and Japan's 40-year JGB issuance today. Senator Lummis's remarks on stablecoin and Bitcoin strategic reserves have attracted attention, with the market anticipating a restart of crypto policy advancement.<div> </div><br><br></div>

QCP: Asset volatility is declining, pay attention to the issuance of long-term bonds in the United States and Japan and the progress of encryption policies

<Odaily> News: QCP Capital stated in its official channel that the volatility of most asset classes continues to decline, and the market has entered a calm period due to the lack of meaningful news flow and macroeconomic data. Although news continues, the market seems increasingly numb to negative news, and headlines that might have previously triggered violent reactions are now lightly passed over.

U.S. Treasury yields have fallen back after the fiscal turmoil caused by the so-called "grand beautiful bill" last week. However, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 120%, and the new bill is expected to increase national debt by an additional $3.8 trillion. The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen below 4.5% and 5.0% respectively, while Japan's 30-year bond yield has also dropped below 3%. These levels remain historically high, but short-term risks have eased. Market focus is shifting to the U.S. 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bond auctions in June. Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Finance will issue 40-year bonds today, with 30-year varieties planned for next week. The ministry seems well aware of market resistance to long-term bonds and appears prepared to adjust its issuance strategy to suppress volatility at the long end of the yield curve.

Ironically, the market is currently in a "just right" interval: the latest data has barely been affected by last month's tariff policy. Businesses and consumers need time to adjust pricing and spending patterns, with potential changes possibly visible in third-quarter data. The Federal Reserve seems to agree, choosing to ignore recent data unless the economy deteriorates dramatically.

Senator Lummis's broad remarks about stablecoin and Bitcoin strategic reserves have reignited hopes for substantive progress in cryptocurrency policy. Since the current administration took office, digital asset plans have been lukewarm, and this meeting might provide the necessary momentum to restart White House involvement. Additionally, Trump Media plans to raise $2.5 billion, joining companies establishing Bitcoin reserves. If the meeting generates momentum, we might see more companies following Strategy and Metaplanet's approach, providing new structural buying pressure to the market.

QCP Capital: Trump Media may lead more entities to follow Strategy and provide new structural buying opportunities for the market

Japan's long-term government bond yield has recently surged to a historic high, with market concerns about capital repatriation and carry trade unwinding rapidly intensifying. If this trend continues, it could bring significant impacts on global capital flows, market stability, and even U.S. asset prices. Does this volatility in the Japanese bond market align with Arthur Hayes' long-standing Bitcoin advocacy?

<Table of Contents>
Toggle
- Long-term bond yields hit record high, capital repatriation risk heats up
- Japanese bond yields rise, potentially triggering a massive global market shock
- ...

Bitcoin script being implemented? The surge in Japanese bond yields could trigger capital outflows from the United States and a retreat in carry trades

<Odaily> Planet News: QCP reported in its channel that Bitcoin's reaction to last Friday's macroeconomic developments was relatively restrained, despite the significant stock market rally. Institutional demand for spot ETFs remains stable, providing underlying market support. Nevertheless, front-end implied volatility remains robust, with Bitcoin price consolidating in a narrow range between $107,000 and $110,000. Recent sustained high volatility indicates that traders are positioning for headline risks ahead of the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas from May 27-29. Market focus has begun to shift to the conference's speaker lineup, including JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Trump Jr., and Eric Trump. Last July's Bitcoin conference in Nashville serves as a useful reference. At that time, Trump's keynote speech triggered a one-day implied volatility spike above 90, which quickly subsided, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 30% within two days. This event continues to influence market memory. Although a similar significant pullback seems unlikely, market positioning shows a defensive tendency. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual contract open interest has decreased, and funding rates have normalized. Some high-beta retail traders, including James Wynn, have also reduced exposure. Short-term put option demand remains closely watched. In this context, reports that Trump Media is exploring a $3 billion cryptocurrency financing, though denied, have increased market sensitivity to headline news. In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within its current range. Once the conference concludes and key speeches are delivered, front-end volatility is expected to compress as risk premiums fade.