TokenPost
Hello. This is the TokenPost podcast. Today, we will look at the weekly market report for the 5th week of May 2025 provided by AM Management. This was prepared as of May 26th. Through this, we will delve deeply into the major movements of the cryptocurrency market over the past week, the macroeconomic factors behind them, and what trends we should pay attention to.
Host
Yes, let's see what points were important.
TokenPost
First, let's touch on the market sentiment from last week. Bitcoin closed with a weekly increase of +2.40%, ending at $109,004.
Host
Yes, it closed with an increase.
TokenPost
However, there were different temperatures among the Federal Reserve officials. Williams (New York Fed) said that the current policy rate is restrictive, while Mester (Cleveland Fed) was cautious about rate cuts. They said slightly different things. How did the market interpret this?
Host
The market interpreted it as somewhat hawkish yet flexible. As a result, expectations for a June rate cut slightly decreased.
TokenPost
Ah, the expectations were somewhat dampened.
Host
Yes, that was the atmosphere. And on the other hand, former President Trump announced that he would raise steel and aluminum tariffs between the US and Mexico up to 50%, but then agreed to a 45-day extension after two days, which was also interesting.
TokenPost
Ah, yes. The negotiation deadline is July 9th.
Host
That's right. It's a temporary truce until July 9th, but the embers are still somewhat present.
TokenPost
I see. Then the economic indicators coming out this week will be really important. What should we pay attention to?
Host
That's right. There are indicators this week that the market will be particularly sensitive to. First, on May 29th, the US Q1 GDP revised figure will be released, and on the 30th, the PCE price index, which is the personal consumption expenditure price index that the Federal Reserve looks at when measuring inflation, will be announced.
TokenPost
Ah, the PCE.
Host
Additionally, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations will be important clues to understanding the Federal Reserve's thinking. Each of these indicators can influence the market's direction.
TokenPost
I see. Are there any cryptocurrency market-specific events? There was a brief mention of the BNB testnet hard fork.
Host
There are events like the BNB testnet hard fork and MocaDrop. However, right now, it's more important to focus on macroeconomic indicators and the Federal Reserve's stance as the bigger variables affecting the overall market mood.
TokenPost
Hmm, macroeconomic factors are indeed important.
Host
And as I mentioned earlier, the trade tariff issue is currently extended until August 12th between the US and China, and until July 9th between the US and EU, so we should also keep in mind the possibility of increased tension after summer.
TokenPost
Ah, summer could be a turning point.
Host
It could be. Based on the CME FedWatch, the market is seeing a 94.4% possibility of a June rate hold, almost certain.
TokenPost
94.4% is almost certain. I understand. Macroeconomic conditions are still important. Let's take a closer look at the internal cryptocurrency market situation. Bitcoin's market cap increased to $217.7 billion, rising to the 4th global asset ranking due to Apple's stock decline.
Host
Yes, the ranking went up.
TokenPost
And the total cryptocurrency market cap increased by 3.98% to $339 billion, recovering quite quickly after adjustment.
Host
The market cap recovery was quite clear. Looking at market dominance, Bitcoin rose slightly to 64.23%, and Ethereum rose by 2.69% to 9.13%.
TokenPost
Oh, Ethereum.
Host
Interestingly, USDT's dominance dropped to 4.53%.
TokenPost
USDT decreased?
Host
This could signal funds entering the market, but it can also be interpreted as a sign of increasing risk asset preference.
TokenPost
I see. In terms of fund flow trends, the movements of institutions and individual leverage funds seem different. How should we interpret this?
Host
That's right. Looking at the futures market COT positions, institutions and individuals are increasing long positions, while leverage funds are maintaining short positions, showing a somewhat defensive attitude.
TokenPost
They're diverging.
Host
Yes, asset managers are also increasing long positions and reducing short positions. So overall, they're betting on an increase but approaching cautiously. This shows that there are differences in short-term outlook among market participants.
TokenPost
I understand. Technically, Bitcoin has undergone some correction after reaching a new high, but it is still maintaining an important support line, so the medium-term upward trend remains valid.
Host
In other words, the trend is still alive.
TokenPost
But you mentioned earlier that Bitcoin dominance has increased. So this isn't a particularly good signal for altcoins.
Host
Exactly. An increase in Bitcoin dominance means that funds have been flowing into Bitcoin, and altcoins have been relatively neglected.
TokenPost
That's right.
Host
For the altcoin market to truly become vibrant, Bitcoin dominance needs to stabilize or decline, allowing funds to flow into altcoins. We're not quite at that stage yet.
TokenPost
The altcoin rebound might require more waiting. Looking comprehensively, the market seems to be finding a balance point amid the Fed's cautious attitude and trade conflict variables.
Host
Yes, that's right. It's a phase where the market is exploring its direction between policy uncertainty and actual economic indicators. The expectation of a structural rise in the cryptocurrency market remains valid, but in the short term, Bitcoin-centered strength seems likely to continue.
TokenPost
Yes.
Host
Ultimately, how much the supply and demand for altcoins improve will be a key point of observation for future market trends.
TokenPost
Yes, through today's AM Management report, we could analyze last week's market very comprehensively. Despite Bitcoin performing well amid Fed's moves and trade issues, the warmth hasn't yet fully spread to altcoins, revealing a delicate market situation.
Host
Yes, let's think a step further.
TokenPost
Oh, what is it?
Host
In the event of future Fed policy changes or trade conflicts that might resurface after summer, it would be interesting to imagine how the institutional investor funds currently focused on Bitcoin might be diversified into other cryptocurrency assets.
TokenPost
The next destination of institutional funds.
Host
Yes, while this isn't directly from the report, it might be a question worth considering for our listeners.
TokenPost
Yes, it's a very interesting question. Thank you for today's analysis. This concludes the TokenPost podcast.
Host
Thank you.
