Traders may be closing positions to take profits.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 Conference, the market once again experienced the curse of a significant drop.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000 this morning, dropping to a low of $104,600. Ethereum also declined from its high of $2,788 to a low of $2,557. The altcoin market generally saw a correction, with some altcoins like BERA even hitting historical lows.
In the futures market, according to Coinglass data, the network liquidated $330 million in the past hour, with long positions liquidated at $321 million and short positions at $7.89 million.
In the macro market, crypto stocks COIN and MSTR both declined after hours. Regarding Fed rate cuts, opinions remain uncertain. Fed's Daley stated on Thursday that while policymakers might still cut rates twice this year, current rates should remain stable to ensure inflation reaches the Fed's 2% target. Daley emphasized that inflation remains a focus as long as it's above the target and uncertain, given the robust labor market. Additionally, a trade court's Wednesday ruling blocking Trump's tariff measures was overturned by an appeals court on Thursday, highlighting trade policy uncertainty that makes many businesses and the Fed uneasy.
Is this pullback a healthy short-term correction or the beginning of a prolonged consolidation? Let's hear the market perspectives from experts and analysts.
Placeholder Partner: Small Market Pullback Doesn't Mean the Trend is Over, Risk Structure Remains Positive
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske posted on social media, "Don't mistake a small pullback for the end of the trend; the overall risk/reward structure remains positive."
Matrixport: Futures Data Suggests Traders May Be Closing Positions to Take Profits
According to the latest report from Matrixport (by 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen), futures open interest has significantly increased since the April low. Although Solana has been relegated to second place due to the cooling of meme coins and Pump.fun, Bitcoin's open interest has shown significant growth. This surge might reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially after recent changes in Trump's tariff policies. Bitcoin continues to play a dual role of "risk appetite" and "safe haven", increasingly aligning with the "digital gold" narrative.
However, open interest currently seems to be stabilizing, which may confirm our view that traders are taking profits and planning to re-enter at lower levels.
Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Enters Healthy Consolidation Phase, Short-Term Holders' Profit-Taking May Trigger Selling Pressure
Bitfinex Alpha's report from May 26 noted that after hitting a historical high in January and experiencing a 32% correction, Bitcoin strongly rebounded over 50%, reaching a new high of $111,880, and is now in a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, spot market participation surge, and positive "realized net capital" growth have driven structural buying in the market, rather than excessive speculation. Despite macro risk appetite declining, such as potential US tariffs on European imports, Bitcoin remains resilient - not showing significant drops during deleveraging and profit-taking.
This resilience is drawing market attention to Bitcoin's evolution into a "macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset", with its trading behavior now more closely linked to global liquidity trends than retail sentiment. Notably, Japan's Metaplanet purchased an additional $104 million in Bitcoin, and Michigan proposed crypto-asset-friendly legislation, further validating institutional and policy-level support for digital assets.
Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can maintain consolidation above its short-term holder cost basis (around $95,000) will be crucial. In the past month, short-term holders have realized over $11.4 billion in profits, potentially creating some selling pressure, but structural demand remains. ETF buying strength, low volatility, and spot market premium signals indicate market maturation, with potential for further increases once the macro environment clarifies. Currently, the next few weeks will determine whether this breakthrough is a temporary top or a prelude to a stronger Q3 rise.
Arthur Hayes: Ethereum Price Could Double to $5,000 This Year
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference that Ethereum's price could reach $4,000-$5,000 this year. Hayes believes Ethereum is currently the "least popular Layer 1 blockchain", but this could be an investment opportunity during market cycle transitions.
CryptoQuant Analyst: BTC Short-Term Holders' Realized Profits Reach Local Peak, But Not Yet at Previous Bull Market Levels
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on social platforms that the STH SOPR (30-day moving average) indicator, which measures short-term investors' on-chain token spending profits, recently touched a local peak, indicating significant profit realization by short-term holders.
Nevertheless, token demand remains strong and hasn't affected the current upward trend. The indicator has not yet reached the euphoric levels seen at previous important price highs.
