Author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Translated by: Plain Blockchain
After a turbulent start in 2025, BTC has reignited its upward momentum, breaking through six digits again, reminding investors why they can weather volatility. However, as momentum returns, a familiar saying emerges: "Sell in May and go away." Traditionally associated with stock markets, this investment adage is now also mentioned in the BTC community. So, is this strategy viable in the current market? Let's delve into seasonal trends, historical performance, and on-chain indicators to determine whether exiting now is a wise strategy or might mean missing the biggest opportunity of this cycle.
Revisiting the "Sell in May and Go Away" Argument
This investment strategy originates from traditional finance, suggesting exiting the market in May and returning in November, as summer months historically perform weakly. BTC seasonal charts indeed show that summer months (especially June to September) tend to perform poorly. However, broader performance data reveals a more nuanced story, especially in the BTC market.
Historically, summer months have lower average returns
When applying this strategy to BTC, the main basis is years like 2014, 2018, and 2022, when BTC experienced deep, prolonged bear markets. In these years, summer month returns were undoubtedly poor. But what if we remove these bear market years from the dataset?
Performance After Removing Bear Markets
After removing bear market years, BTC's average returns turn positive for every month (including June to September). Even September, historically BTC's worst-performing month, shows a slight profit at +0.37%. October's average return is even higher at 26%, historically one of BTC's best-performing months.
Average returns are positive for each month after removing bear market years
This reversal completely undermines the summer exit argument. The strategy only seems reasonable when influenced by deep bear market cycles. In bull or neutral years, summer has significant upside potential.
The Real Cost of Selling in May
Compound return analysis vividly illustrates this. Based on historical monthly performance, if you invested $100 starting in 2012 and continuously held (including summers), your compound returns would now exceed $2 billion.
From compound returns, the "sell in May" strategy performs far worse than continuous holding
However, if you exited every May, avoiding June to October, your final capital would be only $112 million, nearly 18 times lower. Even if you only avoided June to September and returned in October, returns would drop significantly to $536 million, just a quarter of continuous holding returns. Missing summer means missing BTC's exponential compounding effect.
Will This Summer Be Different?
From on-chain indicators, especially the MVRV Z-score, BTC's structure remains healthy, far from typical cycle top levels. The current market landscape suggests BTC still has considerable upside, and if this cycle's rhythm mirrors previous bull markets, the true peak might not arrive until October or later.
BTC's current MVRV Z-score indicates the current cycle is far from its peak
Abandoning positions now based on "typical" seasonal weakness is not only contrary to data but could also push investors out of the market during 2025's most explosive phase.
Conclusion
While seasonal patterns shouldn't be completely ignored, they must be analyzed in context, especially for macro-driven assets like BTC. Bull market cycles, liquidity flows, global economic conditions, and investor behavior are far more important than calendar months.
BTC's cycles are primarily driven by supply and demand, and now, summer 2025 is likely to be BTC's fever pitch, with historical patterns, momentum, and market structural dynamics pointing to strong upside potential in Q4. Investors should not exit based on seasonal clichés but should closely monitor on-chain and macro indicators, focusing on long-term positioning.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/05/5872.html
Source: https://bmpro.substack.com/p/bitcoin-summer-2025-dont-miss-it
