Last night, the United States released two important economic data points: the ADP Employment Report (commonly known as "small non-farm") and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Both data were below market expectations, especially the small non-farm report, which was significantly lower than expected. The report also pointed out that new job additions hit a new low this year, indicating a potential acceleration of slowdown in the US job market.
VX: TZ7971
Trump, who has been urging the Fed to cut rates, naturally did not miss this opportunity to criticize Powell, directly criticizing him on his own social platform Truth Social for being "always too late" and emphasizing that Europe has already cut rates 9 times. Undoubtedly, this economic data has put considerable pressure on the Federal Reserve. Just yesterday, a committee member emphasized that the current economic conditions were ideal and interest rates were "appropriate", but today they were proven wrong.
After the data release, US stock indexes first fell and then rose, and the cryptocurrency market followed suit. BTC first tested $104,000 and then stabilized at $105,000, with everyone expecting an early rate cut. Tonight, the US will also release unemployment data. If both this data and the small non-farm report are below expectations, the Federal Reserve may have to consider an early rate cut in July. If they can cut rates in July, it would be good for the market, but if they wait until the market is in recession, it would be negative.
Today's fear index is 55, still in a neutral state.
The data was neither good nor bad, and the market showed no movement. James managed to get liquidated even in such low volatility, which can be considered a cautionary tale. Everyone should try to avoid excessive risk.
In terms of market trends, if the non-farm data on Friday performs steadily, it will further reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates. Lacking a clear catalyst, BTC will likely continue to oscillate within a range in the short term.
The positive side is that now institutions are rapidly entering BTC from all directions, with a continuous stream of buying. Once this wave of profit-taking is consumed, takeoff is inevitable. Additionally, some institutions are now starting to focus on Ethereum, which is a good change. Hold onto your assets.
Because whales, whether exiting or building positions, will not do so on a pinhead but need a period of time. The last wave that broke through $100,000 consolidated for 3 months at high levels. This wave returning, even if selling, would require consolidation at high levels for several months. So the real risk might be at the end of the year.
As for June, it's better to be patient. What if there's another acceleration of the main upward wave? That's when sentiment will ignite. Escaping the top at that time might be better. Even if it doesn't rise, there will still be time for everyone to exit at high levels. Holding essentially means holding an opportunity cost. You might think this is the top range, but what if it truly breaks through again?
Some are extracting liquidity, while others are providing liquidity. For example, PUMP token issuance, USDC listing on US stocks - these are extractions. However, those Hong Kong and US stock companies copying Microstrategy's shell companies are also providing real liquidity for Bitcoin. Since institutions have been continuously taking over, it means there will always be higher points in the future.
