Author: @arndxt_xo
Compiled by: Blockchain in Plain Language
The market is doing what it does best: testing your belief.
Altcoins continue to decline against BTC, with BTC dominance approaching cycle high points. Market sentiment is split, with some coldly observing and others aggressively going long on low-cap coins.
This is not a signal to shout "altcoin season" tomorrow, so don't FOMO.
1. Yes, we are still in a bull market, but you haven't missed out
Bitcoin remains the protagonist. From ETF fund inflows to corporate fund allocations (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence in BTC keeps its engine running hot.
This is also one of the reasons for altcoins' weak performance - BTC is absorbing most of the liquidity. Before this trend cools down, ETH and large-cap coins won't take off, let alone low-cap coins.
Altcoin season will begin when BTC dominance clearly falls back, not now when it's still consolidating near cycle highs.
2. Cycle is important, but market structure is equally critical
Indeed, the crypto market roughly follows a four-year cycle, driven by BTC halving, liquidity conditions, and technology adoption cycles. From a broader perspective, 2025 looks like the second half, where parabolic moves typically emerge.
But this is also a stage with frequent false signals. In 2021, altcoins surged after ETH overtook BTC. Now? ETH/BTC remains weak. If you rush into low-cap coins before ETH flips, you're too early with excessive risk exposure.
A smarter approach is to accumulate strong assets. Track large-cap coins showing real accumulation (like $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK).
3. Short-term opportunities look better, but not yet confirmed
Traders focusing on key areas are correct. Breaking the range high could ignite a high-beta altcoin move, but position management requires discipline:
Use BTC as a trigger signal, not the trading target.
Spot accumulation on trend-based altcoins like $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV is low-risk.
Watch ETH/BTC. Without ETH's strength, there's no real altcoin season, period.
4. No, you won't get 200x rich overnight
True asymmetric returns come from early positioning in narratives that truly attract attention:
On-chain perpetual contracts (Hyperliquid, Virtual)
ETH LRT protocols with real cash flow
DeFi projects with actual buybacks (AAVE)
Chain-native winners (Base, Solana, BNB - not micro-cap coins)
Altcoin season launch sequence:
BTC hits all-time high (completed).
ETH breaks through (pending).
Large-cap coins rise (some signs).
Mid-cap coins follow.
Low-cap coins take off vertically.
We are currently between stages 1 and 2.
Stay patient, add positions during pullbacks.
Narrative Overview
Bitcoin hits an all-time high, but the crypto community (CT) still feels inexplicably tired. Divided sentiment has its reasons: for retail, almost all important charts are altcoin charts, which have been ranging for months. With summer approaching and traders accustomed to thin order books and sudden rug pulls, market sentiment appears tense.
Treasury-like Gold Rush
We seem to be back in 2020. In the past week, GameStop, SharpLink, Strive, Blockchain Group, and even Trump Media collectively reserved over $3 billion to directly purchase Bitcoin. The logic is simple: in a world where cash actually depreciates 5% and long-term bonds barely keep up with inflation, Bitcoin is the only mainstream liquid asset that outperformed inflation in the past five years.
This balance sheet capital migration has two major impacts:
- It absorbs spot supply, like ETF inflows earlier this year, making each satoshi harder to acquire.
- It provides a risk benchmark for fund managers: "If a retailer known for meme stocks invested 5% in BTC, why shouldn't we?"
- This buying is expected to transform cyclical rebounds into a more structural sustained rise. Ironically, the better Bitcoin performs, the more altcoin season might be delayed; dominance shows early signs of topping, but the holders are CFOs, not short-term speculators.
Capital Efficiency War: AMM Swallows Money Markets
While financial officers hoard BTC, DeFi architects in May have blurred the boundaries of trading, collateral, and fixed income. Euler integrated Uniswap v4 hooks into its lending engine, making LP Tokens automatically become lending collateral - instant liquidity without idle TVL. Hyperdrive allows Hyperliquid traders to leverage idle perpetual contract assets with USDe or USDT0 as collateral, while Malda's ZK-driven "arbitrary lending" layer turns bridging into a user experience detail.
The potential logic is that any asset in smart contracts should work double duty: once for exposure, once for yield. For protocols, this enhances user stickiness; for professionals seeking basis trading, this compresses spreads and reduces the risk curve for real-world asset exposure.
Liquidity Migration: The Quiet Rise of Layer-2
Hyperliquid's TVL is surging weekly, Base's trading volume quietly rides the Virtual ecosystem's tailwind, BNB chain's DEX data is exploding, though in the Polyhedra case, "exploding" is mainly robot wash trading for ZK points.
Ethereum still dominates primary capital flows, but look at the direction of these flows: AAVE, UNI, LINK, PEPE.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/06/5877.html
Source: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1929511847650377877
