In April 2025, a report by Citibank predicted that by 2030, stablecoin issuers will hold over $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which will exceed the U.S. Treasury bond holdings of any single country. In the reserve assets of stablecoins, if other U.S. financial products are included, the proportion of dollar assets is expected to exceed 90%.
3. From the mechanism of action, U.S. dollar stablecoins strengthen the international status of the U.S. dollar through a new dollar circulation.
The stablecoin market currency structure and reserve asset structure above indicate that U.S. dollar stablecoins drive a "new dollar circulation": using dollars to purchase U.S. dollar stablecoins - U.S. dollar stablecoins are widely used for crypto assets, cross-border trade, financial transactions, and other payment settlements - U.S. dollar stablecoin reserve funds are invested in U.S. Treasury bonds and financial assets.
By the end of 2024, the U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves had fallen to a historical low of 57.8%. The new dollar circulation "helps reverse the weakening trend of the U.S. dollar under the 'traditional dollar circulation'": the U.S. increases dollar issuance - trade deficits drive dollar outflow - countries with trade surpluses invest dollars in the U.S. financial market.
Moreover, the global nature of stablecoins, rapid expansion into entity transaction payments, and the development trend of integration with the financial system will not only affect the use of the U.S. dollar in cross-border trade and financial investment but will also help promote the penetration of the U.S. dollar into commodity service payments and financial transactions in various countries.
4. From a policy orientation, the policies and legislation of the U.S. government clearly reflect this strategy.
In January 2025, President Trump immediately signed an executive order "Executive Order on Promoting the Development of U.S. Digital Assets and Financial Technology," which explicitly proposed taking action to promote the development of legal and legitimate U.S. dollar stablecoins globally and protect the sovereignty of the U.S. dollar. Subsequently, Trump and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent repeatedly declared that the purpose of developing stablecoins in the U.S. is to consolidate the international status of the U.S. dollar.
The recently passed Senate "Genius Act," which restricts offshore issuers and requires stablecoin reserve fund asset allocation, again reflects the U.S. strategic intent to dominate the global stablecoin market: the development of the stablecoin market should be dominated by both U.S. dollar stablecoins and U.S. issuers.
Three, Implications for China's Promotion of RMB Internationalization
1. Countries are moving towards parallel and integrated development of central bank digital currencies and stablecoin policies.
In recent years, the policies of major countries on digital currencies and crypto assets have formed three representative models. Model One encourages stablecoin and crypto asset development, implements Bitcoin and crypto asset strategic reserves, but restricts the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). The U.S. is a typical representative of this model. Since 2025, it has actively promoted legislation supporting compliant development of stablecoins and crypto assets. In April 2025, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee passed the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" (H.R. 1919): preventing central bank digital currencies from being used for monetary policy and prohibiting the Federal Reserve from directly providing financial services to individuals. Model Two focuses on developing and piloting central bank digital currencies while strictly limiting stablecoin and crypto asset issuance and trading. Model Three simultaneously pilots CBDC and supports compliant stablecoin and crypto asset development, adopted by major economies such as Singapore, UAE, Hong Kong, EU, and Japan.
Notably, since 2023, the policies of various countries have shown a convergence trend, mostly shifting to the third model - the integration model of promoting CBDC pilots and supporting compliant stablecoins and crypto assets, and actively advancing stablecoin and crypto asset regulatory legislation, with regulatory frameworks gradually becoming clearer. In stablecoin regulation, clear regulatory frameworks have been established for stablecoin functional positioning, usage scope, issuer and trading institution access, issuance and trading scale, daily operations and risk management, anti-money laundering, and prevention of illegal financial activities.
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