BTC Price Prediction
BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Correction but Long-Term Trend Remains Strong
According to BTCC financial analyst Olivia's technical analysis, the current BTC price is 105,567.16 USDT, slightly below the 20-day moving average (106,554.38), indicating potential short-term pressure. The MACD indicator (2189.89) maintains strong bullish momentum, while the Bollinger Bands show price fluctuating between 101,870.22 and 111,238.54. Olivia noted that although there might be a short-term test of the 101,870 support level, technical indicators still suggest the long-term upward trend remains unchanged.
Market Sentiment Analysis: Institutions Hedge Macro Risks
BTCC financial analyst Olivia interpreted the latest market dynamics, indicating that despite global liquidity tightening causing some funds to shift to the stock market, institutional investors like Bitdeer continue to increase BTC holdings (reaching 1,375 coins), showing growing demand for crypto assets as a hedging tool. Metaplanet's announcement to invest $5.4 billion in BTC and Tim Draper's prediction that BTC could reach $250,000 provide long-term market confidence. Olivia believes the current $104,000 key support level will be a watershed for bulls and bears.
Factors Affecting BTC Price
Bitcoin Accelerates Withdrawal from Centralized Exchanges
Over the past week, more than 67,800 Bitcoins were transferred out of centralized trading platforms, showing a clear trend towards self-custody. Bitfinex led with 25,368 Bitcoin outflows, followed by Binance and Coinbase Pro with 10,292 and 9,867 Bitcoin outflows respectively.
This coordinated withdrawal from custody services aligns with institutions' growing preference for cold storage solutions. Market participants seem to be preparing for safety and potential supply impacts before the next halving event.
Risk Appetite Shifts to Stock Market Under Global Liquidity Tightening, Bitcoin Faces Headwinds
Global liquidity conditions are turning negative, potentially marking a turning point for risk assets. Bitcoin has recently underperformed major US stocks, while central bank balance sheet assets (a key market liquidity indicator) have declined over 30 days. This macroeconomic shift typically signals reduced inflows to speculative assets.
Cryptocurrency price trends reveal a clear narrative. While Bitcoin initially performed well during recent tariff tensions, its momentum has stalled as liquidity indicators deteriorate. Historical patterns suggest a challenging outlook: Bitcoin's 2020-2021 bull market thrived during liquidity expansion, while the 2022 bear market followed tightening conditions.
Market mechanisms seem simple—when liquidity recedes, risk assets typically follow. With monetary conditions tightening, the S&P 500 and cryptocurrencies now face similar headwinds. This liquidity contraction mirrors previous periods of speculative assets losing momentum, suggesting caution in high-beta markets.
Bitdeer Bitcoin Holdings Increase to Over 1,375 Coins
Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer reports a significant increase in Bitcoin reserves. As of June 6, the company's total holdings (excluding customer deposits) reached 1,375.9 BTC. This move indicates institutions are strategically accumulating assets amid market volatility.
This week, the mining company produced 43.9 BTC but chose to sell only 12.1 BTC, demonstrating a balance between liquidity management and long-term asset holding. Such operations highlight institutional confidence in Bitcoin's value proposition as a financial reserve asset.
Bitcoin Maintains $104,000 Level, Bulls Defend Key Support
After retracing from recent highs of $112,000, Bitcoin has stabilized around $104,000, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) serving as a rebound springboard. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from the neutral zone, indicating market's continued bullish sentiment.
Traders are closely watching the 26-day EMA as a potential rebound starting point. An effective breakthrough could drive Bitcoin to test the $107,000-$108,000 resistance zone. However, this rally still has concerns—trading volume hasn't matched price movement, leaving the market at a critical turning point.
The $100,000 psychological level serves as a key support, its importance reinforced by its previous role as a resistance in April. Market participants are awaiting confirmation of two scenarios: either breaking short-term resistance or retesting lower support to determine the next phase's direction.
Tim Draper Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $250,000 as a Hedge Against US Fiscal Policy
Venture capitalist Tim Draper reaffirmed his bullish stance on Bitcoin, positioning it as a key hedge against unchecked US government spending. In a recent social media post, Draper compared federal fiscal policy to "a truck without brakes rolling down a hill," emphasizing Bitcoin's protective role.
Draper VC's founder maintains his prediction of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by 2025, citing four key catalytic factors: potential Trump trade agreements, broad market optimism, upcoming regulatory clarity, and growing Web3 infrastructure on the Bitcoin blockchain. Institutional adoption continues to accelerate, with major banks increasingly incorporating Bitcoin into their product services.
"Bitcoin has a unique trust as a store of value," Draper noted, favorably comparing its risk profile to Altcoins and traditional stocks. This institutional recognition comes as the network demonstrates utility beyond its original design parameters.
Metaplanet Establishes US Headquarters in Miami, Plans $5.4 Billion Bitcoin Acquisition
The Japanese listed company Metaplanet, known for its Bitcoin reserve strategy, announced establishing its US headquarters in Miami. CEO Simon Gerovich confirmed this via X platform, indicating the company's expansion ambitions in the crypto space.
The company previously disclosed financing plans up to $5.4 billion, targeting the acquisition of 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. This aggressive accumulation strategy highlights Metaplanet's bullish stance on Bitcoin as a core asset.
BTC Price Prediction: Outlook for 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040
Based on comprehensive technical indicators and fundamental factors, BTCC financial analyst Olivia provides the following long-term predictions:
| Year | Price Range (USDT) | Key Driving Factors |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 95,000-135,000 | Halving Effect, ETF Capital Inflow |
| 2030 | 180,000-250,000 | Institutional Adoption, Global Regulatory Framework |
| 2035 | 350,000-500,000 | Increasing Scarcity, Alternative Reserve Asset |
| 2040 | 750,000+ | Network Effect, Global Payment Infrastructure |
Olivia emphasizes that these predictions are based on current technological patterns and institutional adoption trends, but investors should be aware of the high volatility of the crypto market. Short-term fluctuations may be influenced by macroeconomic factors, but in the long term, the narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold continues to strengthen.
