- Bitcoin's halving schedule reduces mining rewards, thereby consolidating value based on scarcity.
- How much supply actually remains for the market?
The Absolute Scarcity Nature of Bitcoin
Bitcoin's (BTC) greatest advantage over fiat currency is not just decentralization, but also the total supply being permanently limited to 21 million coins.
While governments can print money without limits — leading to currency devaluation — BTC supply is algorithmically locked, making it increasingly scarce and more likely to increase in value over time.
With the next Bitcoin halving approaching, the reduced supply could have a strong impact on price, supporting more sustainable price momentum.
Countdown to Bitcoin's Ultimate Scarcity
According to glassnode's report, Bitcoin has mined 900,000 blocks since its inception. Each block mined releases new Bitcoin, increasing circulating supply.
However, due to the halving mechanism, the reward for each block is halved every 210,000 blocks, causing the BTC release rate to slow down as it approaches the 21 million coin limit.
Source: glassnode
To visualize: Miners create Bitcoin blocks on average every 10 minutes, which is about 6 blocks per hour — totaling 144 blocks per day.
Before halving, each block rewards 6.25 BTC, meaning the market receives an additional 900 BTC/day.
After halving, the reward drops to 3.125 BTC/block, pulling the release supply down to only 450 BTC/day — nearly halved.
From that point, BTC price increased by 47%, showing the strong influence of tightened supply.
Only 1.7 Million BTC Remaining, and Supply is Depleting
Expected in 2028, the next halving will occur at Block Height 1,050,000, pushing the block reward down to 1.5625 BTC.
Simple calculation, 1.5625 BTC x 144 blocks per day = only 225 BTC released/day — just half of the current supply.
This represents a significant supply reduction. With only 1.7 million Bitcoin left to mine before reaching the 21 million threshold, each halving makes BTC increasingly scarce. Looking at large wallet data, supply pressure becomes even more apparent.
The chart below shows the 8 largest wallets holding 4.51 million BTC, equivalent to approximately $471 billion — over 21% of total Bitcoin supply in the market, with most of this not circulating.
Source: X
This is just the beginning. If demand continues to increase and Bitcoin market capitalization reaches $3 trillion or $5 trillion, each BTC could potentially reach $143,000, $238,000, or even higher.
Though still a preliminary estimate, this is the strength of Bitcoin's design: like an auction with no initial price limit — the remaining question is: who will bid the highest?
With supply increasingly tightening and long-term holders, the BTC "digital gold" story has just begun. The market is opening up exceptional long-term growth opportunities for those who hold.
