Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, which is $2.06 trillion.The stablecoin market value is $249.1 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.72%, of which USDT accounts for 62.05%.

This week, BTC's price has been range-bound, currently at $103,655; ETH is also range-bound, currently at $2,481.

CoinMarketCap Among the top 200 projects, a small portion rose while most declined, including: SKY with a 7-day increase of 10%, LA with a 7-day increase of 183.83%, MASK with a 7-day increase of 47.53%, and ANIME with a 7-day increase of 37.33%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETF saw net outflows of $130.8 million; US Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of $280.8 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on June 6 was 46 (lower than last week), with a neutral sentiment for 7 days.

Market Forecast:

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, with US Bitcoin spot ETF showing net outflows, continuing last week's trend, and Ethereum spot ETF showing net inflows. Both BTC and ETH remain range-bound. The RSI index is 49.59, showing a neutral stance, with the Altcoin season index at 18. The US May seasonally adjusted non-farm employment numbers were higher than expected, with the "small non-farm" employment index being the smallest increase since March 2023. The Fear and Greed Index remains neutral.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is only 2.6%, with rate cuts expected to begin in Q3 this year. The market shows two scenarios: public companies "buying BTC" and spot ETF selling by profit-takers. Without major events or new liquidity inflows, BTC is expected to oscillate around $100,000-$105,000 next week. The progress of Chuan Ma's relationship can be observed.

Understanding Now

Weekly Major Events Review

1. On June 2, according to Cointelegraph, at the ETHGlobal Prague conference, Ethereum founder Vitalik stated that Ethereum will expand its L1 scale by about 10 times within a year, then "catch its breath" before the next leap;

2. On June 3, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is seeking comments on whether to modify rules to allow the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund to create and redeem physical shares;

3. On June 3, according to Korean JTBC TV, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party was elected President of South Korea. Lee had previously promised to promote the approval of a crypto spot ETF and proposed issuing a won-based stablecoin;

4. On June 4, documents showed that Trump's social platform Truth Social submitted a Bitcoin ETF application;

5. On June 4, according to Decrypt, Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys CEO Joe Lubin stated on Tuesday that his company is negotiating with a "very powerful" country's "major sovereign wealth fund and bank" about potentially building on Ethereum;

6. On June 4, Donald Trump Jr., co-founder of WLFI, clarified that "the Trump Group has no association with this wallet product (developed in collaboration with Magic Eden and TRUMP Meme). Eric Trump and I know nothing about it. Stay tuned - World Liberty Financial, which we have been working hard to advance, will soon launch our official wallet";

7. On June 5, according to CoinDesk, stablecoin issuer Circle completed its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange at $31 per share, exceeding the original expected price range ($24-26), raising $1.1 billion with a valuation of $6.2 billion. The stock code is "CRCL" and will start trading on Thursday. The IPO originally planned to issue 24 million shares but expanded to over 34 million due to high demand. Circle's USDC, the second-largest stablecoin in the US, is going public as US legislators push for stablecoin regulatory legislation;

8. On June 5, YZi Labs announced investment in OneKey. OneKey is an open-source hardware wallet project focused on enhancing crypto asset security and empowering global users to manage assets independently;

9. On June 5, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book stated that the US economy has declined in the past six weeks, with hiring pace slowing and consumers and businesses concerned about tariff-related price increases. Regarding inflation, the report noted prices are "moderately rising", but there is a widespread expectation among businesses that future costs and prices will rise at a faster rate;

10. On June 5, according to the Wall Street Journal, after Musk criticized the Republican Party's large tax and spending bill, Trump seems to have lost patience with Musk. Meanwhile, Musk is frustrated by Trump's decision to withdraw the nomination of an important ally to lead NASA. A senior White House official said Trump was unhappy with Musk's criticism of the bill he signed, expressing confusion about Musk intensifying criticism after four months of close cooperation. The official stated that Trump's senior advisors were caught off guard by Musk's latest offensive.

Macroeconomic

1. On June 4, US May ADP employment was 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, with market expectations of 110,000;

2. On June 5, the European Central Bank lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, marking the 7th consecutive meeting of rate cuts. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were lowered from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4% respectively;

3. On June 6, according to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in June is 97.4%, with a 2.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut;

4. On June 6, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm employment was 139,000, expected at 130,000, with the previous value revised from 177,000 to 147,000;

5. On June 7, according to official data from the People's Bank of China, China's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons), marking the 7th consecutive month of gold accumulation.

ETF

According to statistics, from June 2 to June 6,US Bitcoin spot ETF net flowwas an outflow of $130.8 million; as of June 6, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.208 billion, currently holding $19.327 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.137 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $128.868 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETF net flowwas an inflow of $280.8 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Event Announcements

1. NFT NYC 2026 will be held from June 23-25, 2025, in New York, USA;

2. Permissionless IV will be held from June 24-26, 2025, in New York, USA;

3. EthCC 8 will be held from June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Cannes, France;

4. IVS2025 KYOTO will be held from July 2-4, 2025, in Kyoto, Japan;

5. The "OpenLedger China Tour" Hong Kong station will be held on June 13 (Friday) from 18:30 - 21:30. This series of events will successively visit five cities (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu).

Project Progress

1. Skate, a chain aimed at connecting all VMs, released a promotional video on X on June 9th, seemingly hinting at the TGE date;

2. Base ecosystem social prediction market Upside plans to launch on June 10th.

Important Events

1. Circle froze 58 million USDT related to the Libra scandal, with crypto law firm Burwick Law claiming to have obtained an approved temporary restraining order from the Southern District Federal Court of New York, with a preliminary injunction hearing scheduled for June 9th;

2. U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill has set the hearing date for the House Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act to June 10th.

Token Unlocks

1. GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens on June 9th, valued at approximately $4.33 million, representing 1.43% of circulating supply;

2. Vana (VANA) will unlock 14.80 million tokens on June 12th, valued at approximately $94.48 million, representing 12.33% of circulating supply;

3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on June 13th, valued at approximately $12.72 million, representing 1.23% of circulating supply;

4. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 163 million tokens on June 15th, valued at approximately $21.59 million, representing 1.63% of circulating supply;

5. Sei (Sei) will unlock 224 million tokens on June 15th, valued at approximately $42.61 million, representing 2.25% of circulating supply;

6. Horizen (ZEN) will unlock 810,000 tokens on June 15th, valued at approximately $8.28 million, representing 3.89% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring, combined with bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy livestreams and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news updates. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.