Tether's IPO valuation could reach $500 billion, making it one of the world's 19 largest companies? CEO: That may be too conservative

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ABMedia
06-09
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In the midst of the heated competition among stablecoins, Tether is estimated that if it were to go public today, its market value would exceed Costco and Coca-Cola, rising to become the 19th largest company globally. Tether's CEO responded to this estimate as "beautiful but somewhat conservative," emphasizing the growth potential of its Bitcoin and gold assets. Facing competitor Circle's listing on the New York Stock Exchange, Tether has chosen to maintain its stance of not going public. On June 5th, USDC issuer Circle officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), with its stock price surging 167% on the first day, becoming one of the most notable IPOs in crypto industry history. This move sparked heated market discussions about stablecoin company valuations. Artemis founder Jon Ma, based on Circle's financial model, calculated that if Tether were to go public today, its market value would reach $51.5 billion, becoming the 19th largest global company, surpassing Costco and Coca-Cola. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino quickly responded to this valuation calculation: $51.5 billion is a beautiful number, but considering our currently rapid growth in Bitcoin and gold reserves, this figure might still be somewhat conservative. He further pointed out that Tether has achieved $13 billion in net profit in 2024, with $7 billion from US Treasury and repurchase agreements, and another $5 billion from unrealized gains in Bitcoin and gold, which are not yet included in the EBITDA model. Ardoino simultaneously emphasized that Tether does not plan to follow Circle's IPO approach: "We have no need to go public and are very excited about the company's future development." Tether has been actively shifting its asset allocation towards Bitcoin and gold, symbolizing a role transformation. The company has recently transferred approximately $390 million in Bitcoin (37,229 BTC total) to its new investment platform Twenty One Capital, led by Strike founder Jack Mallers and positioned as a Bitcoin financial reserve institution. In just a few months, Twenty One Capital has risen to become the third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, second only to MicroStrategy and MARA mining company. With Tether as the majority shareholder (51.7%), these reserve assets not only enhance the company's financial robustness but also provide a higher ceiling for its potential valuation. Although Circle was the first to enter the capital market, Tether has clearly chosen a different path. Ardoino's "next stage of growth" might involve strengthening Bitcoin capital platforms or potentially developing a Layer 1 blockchain focused on stablecoins called "Stable", but not chasing short-term IPO benefits. In the global stablecoin supply, Tether still occupies over 67% market share, firmly holding the top position. Its underlying cash flow structure and asset allocation are gradually revealing a quasi-financial institution's characteristics. For the company, going public or not seems truly not that important.

Here's the English translation:

Dollar Tree (Dollar Tree, NASDAQ ticker DLTR) saw its stock surge by 8.72% last Friday, closing at $94.50. Dollar Tree previously announced impressive Q1 financial results, with the company raising multiple performance profit indicators. The well-known discount store chain added up to 2.6 million new customers, with high-income household customers driving primary performance growth, indicating that inflation and economic pressures are forcing consumers from affluent families to turn to purchasing low-cost goods. Pure market observation, not any investment advice.

Circle, the USDC stablecoin issuer, officially listed (ticker: CRCL) on 6/5, with its stock closing at $83.23 in New York, surging 168% in a single day. However, on the same day, the crypto investment firm Arca, a long-time partner of Circle, furiously accused Circle of being "ungrateful" and announced a complete termination of their cooperation, sparking market discussion.

Arca Investment Director Jeff Dorman publicly criticized Circle on Twitter (X) for being disrespectful in their initial public offering (IPO) stock allocation.

He stated that Arca was one of the earliest institutions to support Circle, having proposed a $10 million stock subscription but ultimately receiving only $135,000 in allocation, which he found insulting.

Dorman publicly criticized Circle:

"We've supported you through so many difficulties over these 8 years, and in return, we get this ridiculous stock allocation that is pure humiliation. We left Wall Street to escape those traditional financial clowns, and now you've become just like them."

Dorman further stated that Arca would not only close all accounts with Circle but would also call on other businesses not to cooperate with Circle.

Compiled Original Text (Currently Deleted):

"You have completely deviated from the core spirit of the crypto industry - in this circle, almost all participants help customers and stakeholders grow together by issuing tokens, turning them into long-term users and product promoters, thereby truly supporting the company's development. However, you have chosen to allocate a large number of quotas to traditional financial mutual funds and hedge funds, which may have never even seen your fundraising prospectus, have no wallets, and never intended to use your product.

We at Arca will completely close all accounts with Circle and notify all market makers that we will no longer accept USDC, and will only use US dollars and on-chain stablecoins. We will also explain to all customers and limited partners in our fund how Circle actually operates, hoping they will also choose to withdraw their business. Now, your product is so irrelevant and homogeneous that we can make this decision without any concerns, with no impact on our business - something unimaginable five years ago. We are willing to invest resources to support other projects to seize your market share.

You and Coinbase are simply a 'match made in heaven' - two management teams that started early but mess up everything. The reason users despise you is that you never care about users. I once thought Circle and Coinbase would ultimately be replaced by traditional finance because your products lack features, but I never thought I would genuinely look forward to this moment. Now, I not only hope for this to happen but will actively participate to ensure it becomes a reality. When banks gradually launch similar products and prepare to seize your deposit profit, I believe those traditional financial investors you tried so hard to please during your IPO will likely not come to your rescue."

Circle IPO Process Heats Up, Raising Nearly $1.1 Billion

Circle originally planned to launch its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on 5/27, issuing 24 million shares. Later, due to market enthusiasm exceeding expectations, it twice adjusted the issuance target on 6/2 and 6/4, ultimately raising to 32 million shares, raising nearly $1.1 billion at a price of $31 per share.

Circle was officially listed on 6/5 with an issue price of $31 per share. Opening at $69.5, it rose to $103.75, with a single-day surge of 168%. According to previous reports, this is the largest first-day increase in a US IPO raising over $100 million since Sono Group NV, a solar electric vehicle manufacturer, rose 155% on its first closing in 2021.

(Circle Gloriously Listed, Surging 168% on First Day, Will It Trigger a Crypto IPO Wave?)

Risk Warning

Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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