Last week (June 3-10), BTC experienced a 10% pullback and rebounded after $1.9 billion in derivatives liquidation, breaking through the $110,000 mark in the short term. On June 5, due to the conflict between Trump and Musk, BTC approached $106,000 under market panic, dropping to a low of $100,372, narrowly defending the $100,000 level. Subsequently, the favorable non-farm employment data boosted BTC to rebound to $110,530, with the largest weekly gain of 10.12%, currently stabilizing around $109,450. Compared to BTC, ETH rebounded more significantly, mainly driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and capital inflows. Currently, ETH spot price is around $2,675 (Binance, June 10, 15:00).
Market Interpretation
BTC Short-Term Breaks $110,000, DeFi Sector Leads Market Rally
Last week, BTC fell below $101,000 during market panic caused by the Trump-Musk conflict, with ETH simultaneously pulling back and mainstream cryptocurrencies under pressure. As non-farm data slightly exceeded expectations, risk appetite warmed up, with BTC and ETH leading the rally. DeFi leaders like SOL, AAVE, UNI, and MKR all rose over 13% weekly. Network-wide contract liquidations reached $436 million, with 87% being long liquidations, and crypto total market value rose to $3.56 trillion. The fear and greed index increased to 71, with capital inflows becoming evident and sector rotation accelerating.
The core driving forces were: first, the release of high-leverage funds and liquidity restoration after previous liquidations, making the market structure healthier; second, positive signals from the SEC chairman regarding DeFi exemption policies, with policy benefits overlapping with investor sentiment recovery. Short-term market will continue to focus on the impact of this week's US CPI and other macroeconomic data on risk appetite.
US Non-Farm Data Slightly Exceeds Expectations, Short-Term Market Sentiment Optimistic
US May non-farm employment increased by 139,000, though the lowest in three months, it was higher than the market expectation of 126,000, with unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. After the data release, US stock market's three major indices collectively rose, and gold prices slightly retreated.
Recently, US stock trading has focused on economic "soft landing" expectations and changes in US-China trade policies. Current employment and inflation data show moderate economic slowdown, with stable unemployment rate, delaying market expectations of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, high-level US-China discussions on "reciprocal tariffs" have restarted, and although negotiations have not made substantial progress, the market remains cautiously optimistic about policy easing.
Overall, the slightly better-than-expected non-farm employment data provided some support for US stocks and the US dollar, with risk appetite temporarily recovering, though geopolitical and policy uncertainties persist.
Trump and Musk Public Conflict Impacts Global Markets
Last Thursday (June 5), Trump and Musk clashed over the "Beautiful Act", canceling electric vehicle tax credits and carbon credit policies, severely impacting Tesla's profitability. Consequently, Tesla's stock price plummeted over 14% on June 6, with market value evaporating around $150 billion, and US stock market's three major indices also declined, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq falling 0.25%, 0.53%, and 0.83% respectively.
With US stock indices collectively dropping, the crypto market experienced significant volatility, with BTC dropping to a low of $100,372 and ETH falling over 7%. This market adjustment was compounded by profit-taking after previous rallies, delayed Fed rate cut expectations, and seasonal liquidity downturn.
ETH ETF Capital Inflow, Financial Innovation Becomes Main Theme
ETH ETF has seen a net inflow of $815 million in the past 20 days, achieving its first cumulative net inflow of $658 million since the beginning of the year, with a clear capital return trend. ETH's rebound exceeded BTC, benefiting from accelerated implementation of key applications like stablecoins and asset tokenization. Payment giants like Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are actively deploying ETH stablecoins, while crypto platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood are enhancing financial innovation scenarios, gradually transforming ETH's market structure from speculation-driven to application-driven.
More Information
New Korean President Promotes Stablecoin and ETF Institutionalization, Driving Regional Capital Inflow
After Lee Jae-myung's election as Korean president, the ruling party quickly proposed the "Digital Asset Basic Law", lowering barriers for local companies to issue stablecoins and promoting virtual asset ETF legalization. Korea's crypto market institutionalization is accelerating, with market trading heat continuously rising and policy benefits driving capital inflow into local Korean assets.
Crypto Fund Total Scale Reaches New High, Asset Allocation Diversification Trend Strengthens
In May, global crypto fund asset management scale reached $167 billion, with a monthly net inflow of $7.05 billion, accelerating capital entry into the crypto market. Data shows BlackRock's spot BTC ETF (IBIT) exceeded $70 billion in assets within 341 trading days, holding 2.8% of global BTC total supply.
In comparison, global stock funds saw a net outflow of $5.9 billion, with gold funds experiencing their first net outflow in 15 months. Crypto assets are gradually becoming a routine portfolio allocation, with market structural changes becoming apparent.
Crypto Treasury Model Gains Popularity, Leverage and Stampede Risks Attract Attention
Currently, over 120 listed companies have incorporated BTC into their treasuries, with MicroStrategy holding 580,000 BTC, valued over $61 billion. Analysts believe that if BTC drops below $90,000, about half of the holding companies will face potential loss risks, with passive selling potentially triggering a chain reaction. Grayscale GBTC's premium turning point and related explosion cases sound an alarm for the current crypto treasury model, with the industry needing to be wary of excessive leverage and liquidity risks.
