I. Market Review: Bitcoin Consolidates at High Levels, Mainstream Assets Show Resilience
Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market maintained an overall high-level oscillation pattern. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke through $112,000 in early June but lacked upward momentum and subsequently retreated to the $108,000 to $110,000 range. As of June 10, BTC was trading at around $109,000, with weekly gains narrowing to less than 2%. From a technical perspective, $105,000 serves as a stage support, while $111,000 remains a short-term key resistance.
Ethereum (ETH) showed relatively stable performance, hovering above $3,800. Notably, Ethereum-related investment products have seen consecutive weeks of net capital inflows, with the latest week attracting $250 million, indicating institutional confidence in ETH's long-term potential. Solana (SOL), Chainlink (LINK), and other mainstream cryptocurrencies recorded gains of 1%-3%, while some small-cap tokens like SUI and HYPE were active, with weekly gains exceeding 7%.
On-chain data further confirms the market's rationality: continuous decline in BTC exchange balances suggests investors are choosing medium to long-term holding, while the futures market shows no large-scale liquidations, indicating that overall leverage remains in a healthy range. Overall, while the current market lacks breakthrough catalysts, its fundamentals are stable and well-structured.
II. Macro Variables Influence Trends, Federal Reserve's Moves in Market Focus
Over the past week, crypto market trends were largely influenced by macro expectations. In the United States, investors are closely watching the upcoming May CPI and non-farm employment data. The market expects CPI to remain around 3.3%, with new non-farm employment potentially slowing to 130,000. If data falls below expectations, it will further strengthen market bets on a Fed rate cut in September, which would be favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
On the Federal Reserve front, Chairman Powell has maintained a cautious tone in recent public appearances, without making clear policy statements. However, based on federal funds rate futures pricing, the probability of at least one rate cut this year continues to rise. In this context, crypto assets have once again become a "liquidity expectation indicator" in the eyes of institutions, serving as a hedge against inflation and liquidity tightening.
Meanwhile, Circle's IPO plans have attracted widespread market attention. The company plans to list on the NYSE this week, raising nearly $900 million with a target valuation of around $7.2 billion. As the issuer of USDC, Circle's listing marks a new phase of integration between the crypto industry and traditional capital markets. The Payment Stablecoin Transparency Act being pushed by the U.S. Congress, if passed, will provide a clear legal framework for stablecoin compliance, further lowering institutional entry barriers.
III. International Easing Trend Emerges, Global Economic Prospects Under Pressure
In international finance, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut to its main interest rate last week, the first rate cut since 2023. Falling inflation in the Eurozone and slowing economic growth are the primary reasons for the monetary policy shift. The market generally expects that if the Eurozone economy continues to weaken, the ECB will continue to release liquidity in the coming months, injecting a mild easing signal into global markets.
Simultaneously, the World Bank has lowered its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.3% in its latest report, warning that the global economy may be entering its weakest growth cycle since the 1960s. North America and Europe face higher structural risks amid expanding fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, and escalating trade frictions. In the UK, the latest unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, a one-year high, reflecting the fragile foundation of economic recovery.
For the crypto market, the global monetary policy shift towards easing is essentially a positive signal, especially as institutions seek non-traditional assets to optimize asset allocation, enhancing the relative attractiveness of crypto assets. However, in an environment of high macro uncertainty, the market may continue to experience volatility and fluctuations.
Opportunities in Rational Adjustment
According to 4E's observation, the crypto market is returning to rationality from overheating. Although lacking strong catalysts in the short term, stable on-chain data, continued institutional capital inflow, and gradually clarifying stablecoin compliance pathways provide support for medium to long-term trends.
In the coming week, market focus will be on key points such as U.S. CPI and non-farm employment data, Circle's listing performance and regulatory progress, and subsequent European monetary policy actions. Investors are advised to maintain a neutral position, focus on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, be cautious of short-term pullbacks, and await the clarification of medium-term trends.
About 4E: As an official partner of the Argentine national team, the 4E platform supports trading of cryptocurrencies, gold, U.S. stocks, indices, forex, and other assets, with a one-stop USDT trading service. Recently, they launched a new user registration promotion offering 88U, providing trading benefits for investors. Through 4E, investors can follow market dynamics, flexibly adjust strategies, and seize potential opportunities.
