My economic outlook is for growth that fails to meet consensus. My earnings expectations are lower than consensus. My expectations for risk premiums favors higher risk premiums. My policy outlook is for ongoing pause from the Fed, reinvestment policy changes which will require the private sector to on board more duration and QT lasting longer than expected. The fiscal side I expect more tariffs than consensus, less deregulation positives than have been extrapolated in markets, more impact on growth of immigration policy and about consensus on budget. Though have a different multiplier than many for expenditure cuts and tax hikes vs tax cuts. As for treasury issuance I expect terming out of the debt either organically or via increasing coupon issuance thus I expect a 5.5% 30 year treasury. I don't expect a treasury buyback of duration financed with bills and I don't expect QE or YCC by the Fed. I expect inflation to remain sticky regardless of tariffs. Earnings expectations priced in to markets are aggressive AND multiples are unsustainably high. I expect on going 20% volatility. In terms of positioning I see very few shorts that are in pain and most bears having a historically great year which leaves them well suited to hold through temporary rallies . I see longs having made no return this year if passive and negative returns if active. I see holdings of U.S. stocks at record highs globally where ROW stocks and global bonds offering excellent alternatives. The only bulllish factor I think is working is short term momentum factor which can switch in minutes and may have gone parabolic today which is a sign of failure.

this is why I am applying maximum speculative risk short via SPY OTM July puts. Vol to rise substantially, SP 500 towards 4500 then 4000? Trump factor.

lets see if my main trading/spec rule works. and it is all spec now. fade Trump. market is going up in popular mind due to China deal. well there isnt a deal and Xi and crew are making Trump their pet. appeals court stay is not a win. all if this soggy large mess to SCOTUS