Are more people bearish, but will the market really crash?
As the market drops, bearish voices immediately explode, with discussions about "Double Top", "big drop", and "must retest 80,000 or 70,000" flying everywhere. Many newcomers start to panic and sell, even opening short positions. But is the real trend really that simple? From the daily chart, Bitcoin is accumulating strength after this pullback. Especially in the last two explorations, trading volume continues to shrink, indicating that the bears are losing momentum.
It's like a war - the bulls first occupy the high ground, the bears' counterattack fails, and after a tactical retreat, the bulls launch a new attack. The recent trend looks exactly like a state of "seeing through the bears' weakness and preparing to move". Yesterday's hammer candle was a signal: the bears' selling failed, and the bulls took back control at the close, a typical reversal sign.
Ethereum is the same: three pullbacks, with each low point rising, and each bear attack weaker than the last; conversely, the bulls can break through previous highs each time, with continuous momentum.
Many people panic when seeing the K-line "dropping", but that's just the surface. If you can identify the bull-bear battle behind it, you'll find that this is more like a consolidation phase, not the eve of a crash.
The conclusion is simple: in the current trend, the bulls have the initiative. The key is not to panic and follow the crowd, but to see the essence and grasp the trend.
After reviewing the overall market, let's look at the performance of some altcoins:
XRP
#XRP's price has fallen back to the critical 200-day moving average (around $2.14), which is the key support determining a rebound or further drop. Although it has been repeatedly blocked in the $2.40-$2.50 range, no structural breakthrough has occurred. Currently, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are gradually converging, with price compressed in a tight structure, suggesting a big move may be imminent. Although recent candles are mostly red, this consolidation pattern could be a buildup before a reversal. The RSI is around 45, still neutral, indicating neither bulls nor bears have exhausted their power. As long as it can hold the $2.09 line and the 200-day moving average, XRP may rebound to $2.60 or even test $3 again.
But risks exist: recent trading volume continues to decline, with market confidence insufficient. If a volume-driven drop breaks the 200-day moving average, XRP could directly explore down to $1.85 or lower. The current trend is very similar to the technical pattern before previous major reversals.
SHIB
#SHIB's current price is around $0.00001187, having lost support at $0.00001231, which was the starting point for rebounds in April and May. Repeatedly failing to rise above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages (between $0.0000138-$0.0000140), the market has fallen into a weak zone. More critically, the 200-day moving average ($0.00001546) has been suppressing for weeks, with low trading volume and no significant buying interest. The current RSI is only 32.79, near oversold but with no reversal signal. If it cannot quickly return above $0.0000123, SHIB may further explore downward, with $0.00001000 becoming the last psychological support.
With market sentiment cold and risk appetite declining, meme coins like SHIB are often the first to be sold. Unless there's major positive news (like whale buying, burning mechanism, major partnerships), it will likely continue to oscillate downward, potentially with panic selling.
Trump
#TRUMP token will unlock over $500 million in tokens in mid-July. We had already positioned ourselves at the dinner, when the price was around 16, and I predicted it would drop to 10, which actually dropped to 9, directly halving - a typical "good news is bad news" trend, perfect for trading. As June end and July beginning approach, there might be another round of gaming opportunities. Currently, TRUMP shows short-term oversold rebound signs, with the 10.10-10.11 zone being a high-value entry window, targeting 10.50 (about +4%), with a stop loss at 9.90. Operation suggestion: light position, quick in and out, beware of political news disturbance.
Looking at first-level #GASS cat coin, it's not something you can just hold without belief, without some token holding faith, you'd have been washed out long ago.
From the market view, many have been shaken out by the back-and-forth oscillation, myself included. After experiencing two rounds of big ups and downs, plus the recent ETH chain being quiet, I almost sold last night, with the mouse already hovering, but I held back.
Now I suggest everyone directly extend the view to the daily chart. If this wave can stabilize at 10 million market cap, you can patiently wait for the next breakthrough; when it breaks 100 million, we'll directly look at the weekly level. To those continuing to hold, let's look forward to that day together: break through, and get rich together!
That's it for the article! If you're lost in the crypto world, consider joining me in layout and harvesting from the market! You can join the community via WeChat+QQ group, join group+QQ: 3806326575 or WeChat: Mixm 5688
