Author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Translated by: Blockchain Plain Talk
As Bitcoin shows an unprecedented bullish momentum, an inevitable question emerges: How high can BTC's price actually rise in this market cycle? This article will explore a series of on-chain valuation models and cycle timing tools to determine potential peak price targets for Bitcoin. Although predictions can never replace data-based flexible responses, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand the current market position and potential future direction.
Price Prediction Tools
We first look at the free price prediction tools provided by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which compile multiple historically accurate valuation models. While data-based responses are usually more effective than blind price predictions, studying these indicators can still provide a powerful contextual reference for market behavior. When macroeconomic, derivatives, and on-chain data begin to send warning signals, it is typically a good time to take profits, regardless of whether a specific price target is reached. Nevertheless, exploring these valuation tools remains meaningful and can assist strategic decision-making when combined with broader market analysis.
Figure 1: Applying Price Prediction Tools to Calculate Potential Cycle Top
Key models include the following:
- Top Cap: Predicts peak valuation by multiplying historical average market cap by 35. This model accurately predicted the 2017 top but failed to predict the 2020-2021 cycle, expecting over $200,000, while Bitcoin's actual peak was around $69,000. Currently, this model predicts over $500,000, which feels increasingly unrealistic.
- Delta Top: Generates a more grounded prediction by subtracting average market cap from realized market cap (based on the cost basis of all circulating BTC). This model predicted a top of $80,000 to $100,000 in the previous cycle.
- Terminal Price: Calculated based on Coin Days Destroyed adjusted for supply, it is the model historically closest to each peak, including the $64,000 top in 2021. Currently predicting around $221,000, potentially rising to $250,000 or higher, it is considered the most credible model for predicting the macro Bitcoin top. More details about these indicators and their calculation logic can be found below the website chart.
Peak Prediction
Another powerful indicator is the MVRV Ratio, which compares market capitalization to realized market cap, providing a window into investor psychology. This ratio typically peaks around 4 during major cycles and is currently at 2.34, indicating significant room for growth. Historically, when MVRV approaches 3.5 to 4, long-term holders begin to realize substantial gains, usually signaling cycle maturity. However, due to diminishing returns, we may not reach a full 4 in this cycle. Using a more conservative 3.5 estimate, we can begin to predict more realistic peaks.
Figure 2: MVRV Ratio View Predicts Further Growth Potential in the Cycle, Reaching Historical 4+ or a More Conservative 3.5 Target Value
Calculating Target Price
Timing is as important as valuation. By analyzing "BTC growth since cycle low point", we find that previous Bitcoin cycles peaked around 1,060 days from the low point. We are currently about 930 days into this cycle. If this pattern continues, the peak may arrive in about 130 days. Historically, FOMO-driven price increases typically occur at the end of a cycle, causing the realized price (a proxy for investors' average cost basis) to rise rapidly. For example, in the last 130 days of 2017, the realized price grew by 260%; in 2021, it grew by 130%. Assuming diminishing returns halve the growth rate, growing 65% from the current $47,000 realized price, it could reach around $78,000 by October 18th.
Figure 3: Based on Peak Velocity from Previous Cycles, This Cycle is Far from Over
Combining the projected $78,000 realized price and a conservative 3.5 MVRV target, we arrive at a potential Bitcoin peak price of $273,000. While this seems ambitious, historical parabolic surges suggest such a move could happen in weeks rather than months. Although the peak is more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000, mathematical and on-chain evidence indicates higher valuations are at least possible. It's worth noting that these models are dynamic and may rapidly accelerate if market euphoria intensifies towards the cycle's end.
Figure 4: Predicting This Cycle's Peak by Combining Projected Realized Price and Possible MVRV Target
Conclusion
Predicting Bitcoin's exact peak is inherently uncertain, with too many variables to fully consider. What we can do is establish probability frameworks based on historical precedents and on-chain data. Tools like MVRV Ratio, Terminal Price, and Delta Top have repeatedly proven their value in predicting market tops. While the $273,000 target seems optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cycle timing logic. Ultimately, the best strategy is to react based on data rather than fixed price levels. Use these tools to refine your investment hypotheses, but remain flexible enough to take profits when the broader ecosystem begins to signal a top.
Article Link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/06/5894.html
Source: https://bmpro.substack.com/p/where-could-bitcoin-peak-this-cycle
