1. Market Observation
Keywords: Interest Rates, ETH, BTC
The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate resolution at 0:00 Beijing time on June 19, with the market closely watching Fed Chairman Powell's speech to find policy direction. Although job growth has slowed, unemployment rate has remained stable for three consecutive months, partly due to a sharp decrease in immigrant numbers reducing worker supply. The core inflation rate in May increased for the fourth consecutive month below expectations, supported by rate cut expectations, with the US two-year Treasury yield dropping seven basis points to 3.96% last week. Officials, including Fed Governor Waller, have been open to rate cuts, believing tariff impacts on prices can be considered temporary as long as inflation expectations remain stable. Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Matthew Luzzetti predicts that if officials raise inflation expectations, the number of rate cuts this year might decrease from two to one. Former Fed economist Julia Coronado expects rate cuts to begin in the fourth quarter of this year to address potential labor market slowdown. Trump's tariff policy impacts and Middle East geopolitical situations cast shadows on economic prospects, and the market will closely monitor the Fed's new economic forecast.
In the global digital transformation wave, HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding points out that traditional industries' integration with Web3 and AI technologies is reshaping business landscapes. This trend is reflected not only in enterprises seizing intelligent initiative through decentralized AI and blockchain technology layouts but also in specific investment actions. For instance, Nasdaq-listed Interactive Strength invested $500 million in Fetch.ai tokens, aiming to build the world's largest corporate AI token reserve. Fetch.ai's first global decentralized large language model, with advantages in data privacy, scalability, and community-driven innovation, provides AI support for industries like healthcare, energy, and finance. However, while enterprises accelerate entry into Web3 through private equity and crypto market makers, they must also be wary of crypto asset price volatility and regulatory compliance risks, ensuring strategic sustainability while capturing innovation dividends.
Bitcoin remained volatile over the weekend, with technical analysis showing BTC currently running above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level ($104,872) and along the upward trend line since early June. The MACD histogram tends to flatten, indicating reduced bearish momentum. If the price breaks through the 50-week moving average ($106,351) and stabilizes above the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($106,788), it may test $107,640 and $108,864 in the short term. Despite market volatility, Bitcoin's technical structure remains sound, and its overall upward trend remains solid as long as it doesn't fall below $103,169. Additionally, analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes that $105,000 is a key resistance level, and if lost again, Bitcoin might retrace to the $100,000 liquidity zone, providing a new buying opportunity. Another trader, Merlijn, believes Bitcoin is forming an "inverse head and shoulders pattern" and could target over $140,000 if it breaks the neckline ($113,000). According to Cointelegraph analysis, historical data suggests Bitcoin might rise 16% to 24% in the short term after significant oil price increases. Despite being typically viewed as a risk asset, Bitcoin has shown significant rebounds after oil price spikes in several historical instances.
Meanwhile, Ethereum stabilized around $2,509 after retracing from $2,771 to $2,443 last week, causing 80,000 traders to lose $298 million. However, institutional investors continue to add positions, with BlackRock purchasing $570 million worth of ETH in two weeks, currently holding over 1.5 million ETH valued at $3.83 billion, while SharpLink Gaming acquired 176,000 ETH for $463 million. Technically, ETH is testing the critical support range of $2,500 to $2,550. If support holds, it may rebound to the $2,700 to $2,800 range; otherwise, it might retrace to $2,300 or even $2,000. Notably, ETH's exchange supply has dropped to an eight-year low, and supply shortage may drive price increases. The market generally expects ETH to potentially exceed $4,000 by the end of 2025, with CLS Global being more optimistic, projecting a short-term target of $5,400 and a long-term target of $7,000.
On the market front, on the evening of June 15, ZKJ and KOGE experienced a cliff-like drop on Binance Alpha platform. ZKJ's price plummeted from $1.98 to $0.253, a decline of 83.64%; KOGE similarly crashed from $62 to $8.48. Analysis suggests this crash was triggered by multiple key addresses withdrawing liquidity and massive selling, causing panic selling and liquidity drought. Additionally, the upcoming unlock of 15.53 million ZKJ tokens further intensified selling pressure. Coinglass data shows total network liquidations reached $240 million in the past 24 hours, with ZKJ contributing $102 million. Binance Alpha platform's trading volume has declined for six consecutive days, reporting $777 million as of June 15, down about 51% from the June 8 peak.
Simultaneously, the SOL ecosystem may perform strongly, benefiting from the Binance Alpha token crash and approaching ETF, with SOL rising 7.3% in 24 hours. Ecosystem projects Marinade rose 39.4%, Jito 18.2%, and Kamino 10%. Meme coin aura's market cap briefly touched $235 million, a historical high, before falling to $178 million. Additionally, the WLFI community expects its token to list on June 16, with the official announcing an important announcement tonight at 8 PM, and current institutional OTC price at $0.1.
2. Key Data (as of June 16, 12:00 HKT)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $106,412 (YTD +13.94%), Daily spot trading volume $25.206 billion
Ethereum: $2,576.40 (YTD -22.25%), Daily spot trading volume $14.241 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 50 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.17 sat/vB ETH: 0.31 Gwei
Market Dominance: BTC 63.8%, ETH 9.4%
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, POKT, BTC, ETH, T
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0305
Sector Performance: SOL ecosystem up 8.6%; AI Meme up 6.2%
24-hour Liquidation Data: 68,397 people liquidated globally, total liquidation amount $240 million, with BTC liquidation $26.5295 million, ETH liquidation $39.155 million, ZKJ liquidation $102 million
BTC Medium-Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($107,213.54), Lower line ($105,090.50)
ETH Medium-Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($2,611.58), Lower line ($2,559.87)
*Note: When price is above upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium-long-term bullish trend; conversely, a bearish trend. When price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of June 13)
Bitcoin ETF: +$302 million
Ethereum ETF: -$2.176 million (19-day net inflow ends)
4. Today's Preview
- Binance will stop supporting FIS and MDT token deposits and withdrawals via BNB Chain on June 16
- Binance will adjust Alpha points rules on June 17 to address ZKJ and KOGE's violent fluctuations
- US Senate will conduct final vote on GENIUS stablecoin bill on June 17
- Starknet: STRK staking v2 version will go live on mainnet on June 17
- Nansen will launch first season points program on June 17
- Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens on June 16 at 9 PM, representing 1.91% of current circulation, valued at around $30.2 million;
- ZKsync (ZK) will unlock approximately 768 million tokens on June 17 at 4 PM, representing 20.91% of current circulation, valued at around $39 million;
- ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens on June 17 at 8:30 PM, representing 1.95% of current circulation, valued at around $10.6 million;
Today's Top 500 Market Cap Largest Gains: VaderAI (VADER) up 20.63%, Jito (JTO) up 16.75%, Non-Playable Coin (NPC) up 15.61%, Ribbita (TIBBIR) up 14.52%, Chintai (CHEX) up 14.04%.
5. Hot News
AguilaTrades Opens Long BTC Position and Continues to Add, Intending to Increase to $262 Million
Metaplanet Issues Additional $210 Million Zero-Interest Bonds to Buy BTC
Binance Adjusts Alpha Points Rules to Address ZKJ and KOGE Violent Fluctuations
Cardano Founder Proposes Exchanging $100 Million ADA for BTC and Stablecoins to Revive DeFi
SharpLink Gaming Purchases 176,271 ETH for $463 Million, Becoming Largest Listed Holding Institution
This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway in Asia. Committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
