QCP: Bitcoin withstood the impact of the situation in the Middle East, and macroeconomic turmoil helped it strengthen structurally

Mars Finance News, on June 16, QCP released its daily market observation, stating: "Despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East, Bitcoin has not shown signs of panic selling. After the initial volatility caused by Iran-Israel news last Friday, this crypto market benchmark asset has gradually recovered from its weekly low of $102,800 to $107,000. Similar rebounds have occurred in other mainstream crypto assets and US stock index futures. Behind Bitcoin's resilient performance, continuous institutional buying has been a key support. Notably, institutions like Metaplanet and Strategy continue to buy during the pullback, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net capital inflows for the seventh consecutive week. After Bitcoin maintained the critical psychological level of $100,000, market sentiment has clearly stabilized. More importantly, this round of pullback is only 3%, far smaller than the over 8% decline during the Iran-Israel escalation in April last year. From a more macro perspective, despite rising geopolitical risks, the market's overall reaction remains relatively calm. Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility remains below 40, and the VIX panic index is stable around 20, both at historically low levels given the current situation. Meanwhile, inflows into US Treasury bonds and various Asian sovereign bonds indicate that the market has not fully shifted to a risk-averse mode. However, cautious sentiment still exists. If Iran blocks the Hormuz Strait, it could cause oil prices to surge; if the situation further escalates or the US directly militarily intervenes, global risk assets might face greater impact. Ironically, some perspectives suggest that these risks themselves might structurally benefit Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is only about 6% away from its historical high point, and recent trends have reinforced the view that Bitcoin's adoption trend is being driven by macro disruption, increasing sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical instability."