To all who are calling for World War 3:
If there were even a 50% chance of WW3 right now, the S&P 500 wouldn’t be 2% away from a new all time high.
In fact, the S&P 500 would be down over -30%, gold would be above $5,000/oz, and oil prices would be above $100/barrel.
If there were a 90% chance of WW3, the S&P 500 would be down over -50%, gold above $10,000/oz, and oil prices above $200/barrel.
Despite all the headlines, markets say we are far from World War 3.

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PANews reported on June 14 that the Iran-Israel conflict suddenly escalated on Friday, with commodities bearing the brunt of the ongoing conflict at market close. Crude oil rose by approximately 6%, with a cumulative weekly increase of over 10%; spot gold surged nearly $50, firmly standing above the $3,400 mark, with a weekly increase of over 3.7%. In the coming week, multiple central banks, including those of the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan, will hold policy meetings, while the Iran-Israel conflict continues to escalate. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday at 20:30, the US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday, the Bank of Japan...

Next week's macro outlook: The Israeli-Iranian missile war is fully escalating, and the "wartime market" of gold and crude oil may wipe out all shorts

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Gold prices advanced towards a record high on Monday, as the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets. In early Asian trading on Monday, gold prices rose 0.6%, reaching above $3,450 per ounce, approximately $50 away from the historical peak set in April. The sudden increase in geopolitical risks added more momentum to gold prices, which have primarily been driven by the threat to global economic growth from Trump's aggressive tariff agenda. Gold has risen over 30% in 2025, with central banks seeking to diversify away from the US dollar being another important driving force. (Jin Shi)

Gold price is $50 away from new record high

Michael Saylor just posted the latest announcement about his company continuing to buy more BTC, thereby attracting the attention of the community. Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin holding company, announced on Monday that it added 10,100 BTC worth about $1.07

Strategy Announces Purchase of Additional $1.07 Billion in Bitcoin

Futures all around the board this morning saw de-escalation coming.
Oil prices erased losses and equity market futures turned green.
We (and markets) see a peace deal coming soon between Israel and Iran.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

i don't think we should be calling for ww3
but if you're waiting for such price movements to realize a big war is coming... chances are you'll be late as fuck 😂