As Bitcoin continues to reach new highs, more and more listed companies are investing in the asset as a reserve strategy. However, when stock prices decouple from asset values, risks emerge. Asset management company VanEck
warned that medical technology company Semler Scientific (SMLR) is now close to its market value of its Bitcoin holdings, and if the situation continues to deteriorate, it could lead to severe dilution of shareholder value and impact the company's operations.
With Bitcoin surging and stock prices halved: Semler's market value fails to reflect its assets as the focal point
Semler Scientific has shifted to a Bitcoin reserve strategy since May 2024, currently holding 4,449 Bitcoins with a total value of approximately $475 million, ranking 14th among global listed companies. However, Semler's
stock price has not risen but fallen, dropping nearly 45% year-to-date, with a market value of only about $401 million, almost equal to or slightly lower than its asset value.
Data from
Bitcointreasuries shows that the company's current "NAV multiple (market value divided by Bitcoin asset value)" is only 0.841, indicating that the market has not given any premium but instead a discount. VanEck's Digital Assets Research Head Matthew Sigel pointed out the company as the first Bitcoin-holding enterprise facing the risk of its market value being close to its asset position.
VanEck: When market value cannot catch up with held assets, issuing new stocks will no longer create value
Sigel noted that many enterprises raise funds through the "At-the-Market (ATM)" mechanism to purchase Bitcoin, but if the stock price is close to or below the net asset value per share, continuing to issue new stocks will no longer have strategic significance and will instead dilute the value of existing shareholders' holdings. He warned: "This is not capital formation, but value erosion."
To avoid this vicious cycle, Sigel suggested that enterprises should establish risk control mechanisms, including:
- Suspend capital raising if NAV multiple is below 0.95 for 10 consecutive days
- Consider buybacks if Bitcoin price rises but stock price shows no significant response
- Initiate a comprehensive strategy assessment if valuation fails to reflect asset position for an extended period, considering merger, split, or ending the Bitcoin strategy
He also particularly reminded that the compensation of enterprise executives should be linked to "growth in net asset value per share" rather than simply measuring the number of Bitcoins held, otherwise repeating the mistakes of some mining companies with "high salaries and excessive new stock issuance."
Why is Semler's market value low? Convertible bonds, liquidity, and business disputes are the main reasons
Why can't Semler's valuation keep up with Bitcoin's rise? VanEck and Blockstream CEO Adam Back discussed this in the comments section. Sigel believes there are three main reasons:
1. Semler is a small-cap stock with low market liquidity
2. The only issued convertible bond trades at a low price (with an annual yield of 11%), indicating low investor confidence
3. The original medical device business performance is not ideal, dragging down the company's overall valuation
Adam Back added that Semler was involved in a medical equipment-related lawsuit that has now been settled, but the market's understanding is limited, and this information gap may cause investor hesitation. He speculated that the company might have paused its capital raising and Bitcoin purchasing plans, and although it has recently resumed actions, the market has not simultaneously reflected its proactive efforts.
Topic bonus is gone: Is the Bitcoin reserve strategy entering a trial period?
For many companies, buying Bitcoin was originally a strategy to attract market attention and create asset leverage. However, if the company's market value cannot reflect its held assets, this model becomes unsustainable. Sigel emphasized:
When a company's market value is close to the value of its held crypto assets, any further equity dilution will harm existing shareholders rather than create benefits.
Semler is just the first, and this warning will also impact other listed companies that choose crypto as an asset allocation. VanEck's call will also be a wake-up call for the market, and companies should consider whether investors are willing to buy in before investing.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
Market concerns about a potential escalation of war between Israel and Iran have subsided, and risk appetite returned to Wall Street on Monday. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major US stock indexes rose slightly. The Bitcoin reserve strategy pioneer MicroStrategy Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced purchasing 10,100 BTC for $1.05 billion. Bitcoin rose from $104K yesterday, reaching a high of $108,952, and then declined to $106K before the deadline due to Trump's remarks about leaving Tehran.
Potential Easing of Israel-Iran Conflict
The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing unnamed Middle Eastern and European officials, that Tehran hopes to ease hostile actions with Israel and is willing to restart nuclear negotiations with the US, provided Washington does not participate in Israeli attacks. A similar Reuters report said Iran conveyed this message through Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.
Trump earlier stated that despite four consecutive days of fighting, Iran still hopes to negotiate to ease tensions with Israel. When asked if the US would further intervene militarily, Trump said he did not want to discuss the issue.
The Israel-Iran hostilities disrupted the momentum of pushing the S&P 500 index near its historical high. Although the market initially took a cautious hedging stance to assess the conflict's developments, market sentiment improved on Monday as investors speculated that the attacks were unlikely to trigger further action.
Countdown to Fed Decision
The Middle East tensions will only add to the challenges faced by major central banks in assessing the risks of tariffs and intermittent trade flows on inflation and growth.
On Wednesday, Wall Street will focus on the Fed's policy resolution, with decision-makers hinting at maintaining unchanged interest rates. Investors will pay attention to Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting press conference to understand the factors that might ultimately prompt Fed action and its specific timing.
(Countdown to Fed Decision! Market Bets Powell Will Hold Steady)
MicroStrategy Strategy Buys More Bitcoin
The Bitcoin reserve strategy pioneer MicroStrategy Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced purchasing 10,100 BTC for $1.05 billion, with an average cost of about $104,080 per Bitcoin. As of June 15, 2025, Strategy has held 592,100 BTC, with an average cost of $70,666 per Bitcoin, spending a total of $41.84 billion.
Trump Calls for Leaving Tehran, Bitcoin Drops to 106K
Bitcoin rose from $104K yesterday, reaching a high of $108,952, and then declined to $106K before the deadline due to Trump's remarks.
"Iran should have signed the agreement, which is shameful and a waste of life. In short, Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. I've said this over and over again! Everyone should immediately leave Tehran!"
Ethereum also declined from $2,680 to above $2,500.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
