According to updated data from CME's "Fed Watch" tool on June 18, the probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its base interest rate in this week's monetary policy meeting is up to 97.3%. This indicates that the market is almost certain that the Fed will continue to maintain the current interest rate, reflecting caution in the context of ongoing uncertainties in the US economy.
Forecasts for July also show a similar trend: there is an 85.3% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates, a 14.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and only a 0.3% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut.
These figures reflect the increasingly high expectation that the Fed will not rush to loosen monetary policy, especially when inflation pressures remain unregulated and the labor market remains stable.
