Analysis of Cryptocurrency Trends Based on Former Fed Vice President's Assessment
New Developments in Inflation and Impact on Cryptocurrency Market
On June 18, sources reported that Richard Clarida, former Vice Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), currently an advisor to PIMCO, provided an assessment of inflation in the United States. Although US inflation initially showed more promising signs than predicted, he believes pressure remains significant. The growth in tariff policy, especially with the medium positive tax rate reaching 15.6% in June, the highest since 1937, could push the inflation index beyond 3%. This is a factor that could cause significant volatility in cryptocurrency values like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Impact of Monetary Policy and Bond Market on Cryptocurrencies
Clarida questioned the possibility of the US Federal Reserve maintaining its forecast of two interest rate cuts this year. He emphasized that if markets become concerned about the independence of the new Fed Chairman, stock and bond markets could react extremely. The return of the 10-year US government bond yield, demonstrating the emergence of "bond vigilantes", more clearly shows investors' tendency to hedge risks by investing in traditional non-yielding assets or cryptocurrencies.
Influence on Cryptocurrency Investment Strategy in the New Context
In a context where US economic factors and interest rate policies may strongly fluctuate, cryptocurrency investors need to consider appropriate strategies. The cryptocurrency market may become more extreme in response to macroeconomic information. Currencies like BTC, ETH, and major altcoins face both challenges and opportunities. Investing in these decentralized assets requires careful understanding of market-driving factors in low or volatile interest rate environments.
Conclusion: Potential and Risks of Cryptocurrencies in the US Economic Context
Based on Richard Clarida's assessment, it is clear that Fed policies and tariff rates in the United States could create significant pressure on cryptocurrency values. Investors must pay attention to long-term interest rate developments and monetary policies to appropriately adjust their investment portfolios. Thorough analysis of key macroeconomic factors is the key to capturing opportunities in this volatile cryptocurrency market.
