This morning, American missiles disrupted the fragile balance of the crypto market.
According to multiple media outlets including CNN, US President Trump ordered strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, with Fordow experiencing a "full payload strike". Although Iran claimed early evacuation, the market clearly could not bear this sudden risk from the Middle East.
OKX data shows that before press time, BTC dropped to a low of $100,866, briefly recovering to $102,256, with a 24H decline of 1.22%, approaching the psychological threshold of $100,000; ETH dropped to a low of $2,215, temporarily reporting at $2,263, with a 24H decline of nearly 6.67%; Altcoins such as SOL, Doge, and PEPE simultaneously plummeted, with declines ranging between 4% and 8%.
In the derivatives market, according to Coinglass data, liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $675 million, with long liquidations at $595 million, ETH liquidations at $275 million (the highest), and BTC liquidations at $151 million.
Alternative.me's "Fear and Greed Index" dropped from yesterday's 49 (Good) to 42 (Fear), showing slightly subdued sentiment.
Long and Short Battle Imminent
However, large funds have not retreated, but are quietly "buying the dip". According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale/institution that previously precisely went long on ETH, bought 13,498 ETH this morning, with a total value exceeding $30 million. Since June 11, they have accumulated over 130,000 ETH, with an average entry cost of $2,540, currently unrealized losses of nearly $40 million.
Shorts are also massively assembling. Monitoring accounts show that a whale's short positions across 58 cryptocurrencies since June 16 have an overall unrealized profit of over $20.65 million, with ETH shorts yielding the best performance at $4.2 million.
With long and short battles, the storm center is Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Market Expectations: Geopolitical Storm + Macro Disturbance, Where Will Prices Anchor?
This sudden geopolitical storm made the market realize again: Bitcoin is not a "safe-haven gold", but a "volatility amplifier". However, is this decline already an extreme emotional release triggered by the "Middle East geopolitical crisis"? The market focus will shift to the overlay judgment of the Federal Reserve's policy path and regional situation development.
After the US assisted Israel in striking Iranian nuclear facilities, BTC once dropped close to $100,000, with ETH and other mainstream and Altcoins simultaneously plummeting. Although Iran officially stated that "three major nuclear facilities were evacuated in advance" and the US said "no further strikes are planned", the Middle East situation is far from settled, with the market still pricing "risk", not "outcome".
Meanwhile, macro aspects are quietly changing: Although the Federal Reserve will start rate cuts in September 2024, with three cuts totaling 100 basis points, recent statements from officials including Powell suggest that "rates are near neutral, and future rate cut pace may slow", with market expectations for 2025 rate cuts reduced from 4 to 2-3 times; long-term US bond yields are rising, the dollar index is strengthening, and global financial environment shows a "de-risking" trend, making crypto markets, as risk assets, naturally the first "clearance" target.
BRN Chief Analyst Valentin Fournier noted that while inflation has cooled and tariff concerns eased, US economic growth slowdown has raised stagflation concerns. Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed confidence in the "deflationary trend" in the post-meeting press conference, with a slightly dovish tone, but highlighted robust job growth and strong consumer spending, providing space for policymakers to maintain high rates. Due to no urgent need for rate cuts, the Fed reiterated a wait-and-see attitude, pushing the first rate cut expectation to September. As a decentralized, borderless digital asset, Bitcoin has a unique advantage in absorbing capital flows regardless of the Fed's domestic policy stance.
However, some views suggest that Ethereum's on-chain fund movements indicate the market is reconstructing "mainstream asset consensus". With factors like continuous whale accumulation, traditional companies adding ETH reserves, SEC loosening DeFi regulation, and active bullish options, ETH might be becoming a "value anchor within safe havens".
Future BTC price trends will largely depend on the game of these three variables:
- Will geopolitical tensions further escalate? If Iran strongly counterattacks and the US or Israel intensify their response, the market will be pushed further into risk-averse mode, with gold strengthening and crypto under pressure. Conversely, if the situation remains in a "conflict without breaking point" state, sentiment may gradually recover.
- Will the Federal Reserve's liquidity attitude shift? If the Fed releases more dovish signals in July or September FOMC meetings, the crypto market will get a "policy breathing period" with funds flowing back. Otherwise, more pullback risks exist.
- Will BTC's technical structure break the bull market? Currently, BTC is in the $100,000-$105,000 "strong support zone". If it fails to hold $96,000-$98,000, a larger technical correction will be triggered; if it rebounds and stabilizes, it might build a new consolidation platform.
From a game perspective, this looks more like a dual washout of "liquidity + sentiment" rather than the end of the bull market. As FalconX says: "Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets is weakening, and future prices will be more driven by on-chain structure, institutional positioning, and policy negotiations."
Conclusion: Chaos is the Nursery of Order
The crypto market is entering a new cycle full of variables.
With macro storms unresolved, geopolitical crises sudden, and risk assets running high, market sentiment is highly sensitive. Every tweet, every negotiation, every airstrike is a spark of volatility. But behind the sharp decline, we see longs adding positions, shorts taking profits, ETH being repeatedly bought by whales - on-chain data never lies - the market is negotiating, not fleeing.
Next, can Bitcoin defend the $100,000 psychological level? Will ETH become this round's "safe-haven axis"? Will Altcoins continue to be marginalized? These will require time to verify before a clearer answer emerges.
