Will There Be Another Altseason? CRCL shot straight to 300, with trading volume breaking 10 billion. Unfortunately, I was a bit late to catch on—but better late than never. I’d rather be bagholding than not on the train at all. Missing out hurts more than heartbreak—even if the bride price is buying CRCL at 250, I’m in. Looking at the crypto space, it’s basically ice cold now. The reasons are complex and deep, but in short, here’s what’s up: 1. VCs Got Rekt/Did the Rekt-ing, They’re Not Coming Back VCs either created exit liquidity at sky-high valuations or aped into projects. From my previous list—Move, BearChain, EigenLayer, etc.—if you check the comments, it’s obvious which ones were VC pump-and-dump schemes and which VCs actually backed projects out of genuine conviction. The ones running exit scams knew from the start who they were going to dump on, and how. After cashing out, they’re gone for good—calling everyone idiots as they leave. Ironically, these are the clearest-headed people: they know that except for BTC, 99% of crypto is garbage. As for the idealist VCs, they genuinely believed BTC would rip to $100K, $250K, and protocols like EigenLayer would moon alongside ETH running to $10K, $20K, so a few billion in valuation seemed cheap. But before tokens even unlocked, the whole market froze over. These VCs won’t stick around, either. Most of their LPs are down 60–90%. The funds are either dissolving or barely hanging on. From what I know, most crypto native funds are basically done. The only people left are “old guard” staff to claim tokens from projects that haven’t launched yet. If you interviewed top-tier VCs and asked for their honest thoughts in one sentence, it’d probably be: “I’m an idiot, should’ve just bought BTC.” 2. Innovation in Crypto Is Dead In past bull runs, each cycle had major innovation—ICO, DeFi, NFTs—something lasting came out of each. This cycle, we only got one crippled “innovation”: inscriptions. But everyone sees that’s not real innovation, and nothing will last. Is there more innovation coming to crypto? Debatable. Inside the crypto bubble, probably not. Can’t say it’s impossible, but the chance of real innovation has dropped from 50% to 10%. Outside of crypto, though, there’s real innovation happening. 3. Real Innovation Is Happening Outside Crypto Is CRCL innovative? Hell yes—it’s aiming to disrupt Visa’s $600B market cap and take over global cross-border payments. It’s 100x more efficient and cheaper than legacy systems. So sure, CRCL at 250 is expensive compared to 60, but if you believe it can hit 3,000, and don’t mind catching a short-term bag at 60, it’s all good. RWA is innovative, but probably useless—just another excuse to print tokens and dump on retail. Is “compliance” innovation? Strictly speaking, not really. But compliance is the bridge—how crypto goes mainstream. A few things are obvious: - Compliance is the mega trend. For crypto to grow big, it must go compliant. Non-compliant exchanges, apps, even USDT, will get squeezed. - With compliance, the top crypto projects may stop launching tokens altogether and instead IPO on US stock markets—way more liquidity there. Historically, BTC’s value and consensus got a boost from altcoin innovation and hype. That’s over now. I used to worry about this, but now I see the game’s changing. BTC’s future adoption won’t come from “Web3 mass adoption”—that’s a false narrative. The old “pump and dump” tricks won’t bring in new blood. Instead, it’ll come from Web2 integration. In the future, people will buy stuff on Amazon or Pinduoduo and just pay with compliant USDC—no need for fancy cards, just an in-app wallet supporting BTC and USDC. For BTC payments, I don’t think it’ll be Lightning Network or other half-baked stuff, but something like Coinbase or official USDC wallets, with cbBTC (BTC wrapped on Base and custodied by Coinbase). Users swap BTC to cbBTC and use it directly—simple and secure, with ETFs also custodied there. Sure, some purists will hate the lack of self-custody, but their opinion doesn’t matter—the hundreds of billions in ETFs are the real answer. *** So, based on all this, here’s my take: “Fish where the fish are.” Whether you’re investing or speculating, follow this logic. Here are the questions you should ask before aping in: 1. Will people outside crypto care about this? 2. Is it easy to trade/pump? 3. Is the upside big enough? Right now, outside money is laser-focused on stablecoins and compliance. That’s where you should look. Not many investable targets here: - If CRCL dumps back to 60, people will pile in, so it’s hard to see it dropping that far in the short term. If you don’t want to predict, just ignore it and wait for a dip. Nothing pumps forever. If you have FOMO, buy a small bag and DCA down to 60 if it nukes. - I’ve also been researching HashKey’s exchange token HSK—FDV is ~$400M, but the company has probably burned even more. HSK is both an exchange token and gas for the HashKey chain—a bit like Coinbase + Base. - With the compliance narrative and stablecoin hype, plus HSK’s OTC business (probably already profitable), once it lists on a big exchange like OKX, it’ll have enough liquidity to catch a hype wave. - Downside? The business is a mess, reportedly with huge internal drama, and they haven’t found the right people yet. Ideally, they’d get someone who’s made big money in crypto, gets the space, has vision, doesn’t need a salary, and can turn things around for a share of future profits. But for short-term speculation, don’t bother “teaching people to do their jobs.” - From a “China pride” angle, I’d love to see an Eastern Coinbase emerge. Coinbase is worth $100B; HashKey’s FDV is $400M. OSL (similar to HashKey) went public in HK at $7B, but does only 1/10th HashKey’s volume. - CRCL is for investing, HSK is for speculation—US stocks for investing, HSK for a good speculative punt. - HSK’s deepest liquidity is on Gate now, but it’s still thin—like ORDI in the early inscription days, only tradable on Gate until Binance listed it and brought real liquidity. - No Gate account? Use this link: gate.com/share/ulgqbfk *** On memes: - I’m not touching conspiracy or insider meme coins—total waste, just friends dumping on each other. - Traditional memes are boring too. - Only memes that attract normies have a future. Right now, only one fits: Labubu. Glad to see it staying strong—if it crashes, it’s over. A lot of people don’t get how huge Labubu is because they’ve never looked into Pop Mart. Brands like Prada, Chanel, LV are all slipping, but Labubu is the hottest topic among rich housewives, and stores are all next to luxury brands. Labubu is Pop Mart’s flagship. There’s an upcoming movie and more. Pop Mart’s strategy isn’t just more IPs, but building a century-long brand. Labubu is now hotter overseas than in China, with unboxing videos blowing up on TikTok—way more viral than Pepe or others. If you don’t get memes, you might ask: “What does this shitcoin have to do with Labubu?” If you understand Pepe, you’ll get Labubu: both started overseas, China FOMOs in after. Pepe is just a meme, but it held a multi-million cap at launch. The only meme normies truly get and will keep spreading is Labubu. This isn’t some Elon tweet pump-and-dump. For memes, bet on those with long shelf life and big upside. Current bags: BTC, HYPE, HSK, Labubu (DYOR). Stocks: PDD, UNH, Coinbase, Tencent, and just added a small speculative CRCL position.