TL;DR
Macro data shows that US inflation has signs of easing but remains above the Federal Reserve's target. The labor market is generally stable, consumer spending is slowing due to high interest rates, and the Fed maintains its cautious stance on rate cuts. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified market volatility. Although the resumption of economic dialogue between the US and China provided a brief boost, global economic prospects are under pressure, and future market trends will be influenced by rate cut expectations and international situation changes.
The crypto market trading volume remains active but with weakening momentum, with funds becoming cautious due to geopolitical risks. Market capitalization declined by 4.03% quarter-on-quarter, with capital focus clearly returning to BTC. ETH and stablecoins performed steadily. Newly listed tokens are concentrated in DeFi and Layer 1 tracks, with VC-supported projects still dominating, and hotspots primarily driven by sentiment.
Despite geopolitical risks and the Fed's hawkish stance pressuring market sentiment and causing Bitcoin and Ethereum prices to fall, the Bitcoin spot ETF still saw $1.13 billion in net inflows. Ethereum experienced about $80 million in net outflows due to a larger price decline, reflecting increased short-term risk-averse sentiment. Meanwhile, driven by stablecoin legislation and Circle's listing, the stablecoin market continued to expand, with total circulation growing by approximately $4.17 billion in June.
On June 22nd, after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin strongly rebounded, breaking through $108,000. Consecutive ETF net inflows reflected institutional bullish sentiment, with technical indicators showing bulls regaining momentum. In the short term, it may challenge the historical high of $111,980. Ethereum and Solana also synchronized their rebound. If they break through key moving average resistance, further upside potential may open up; otherwise, they might return to a consolidation pattern.
Circle successfully went public and benefited from the GENIUS Act's passage, driving the stablecoin sector stronger. However, its valuation heavily depends on interest spread income, with long-term sustainability still uncertain. Virtual gained significant early user profits through an innovative token launch mechanism on the Base ecosystem, but its token price dropped over 30% from its peak after the "green lock mechanism" limited liquidity.
Pumpfun's token auction, valued at $4 billion, was again postponed. Coupled with platform trust crisis and ecosystem doubts, the market remains divided on whether it can bring structural breakthroughs. Coinbase is advancing Base chain and main application integration, while JPMorgan Chase pilots the "deposit token" JPMD, signaling traditional institutions and centralized platforms are accelerating deployment in on-chain dollar and compliant stablecoin tracks.
In June, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East + the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" stance led to lower market risk appetite, putting pressure on Bitcoin market sentiment and causing a downward oscillating trend. Bitcoin price dropped from $105,649 to $100,987, a decline of about 4.41%. Although the subsequent temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel caused a price pullback, the market remains under the influence of war risks. Bitcoin spot ETF funds continue to maintain a net inflow trend, reflecting traditional investors' confidence in long-term value, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $1.13 billion in June.
ETH ETF Outflows of $80 Million in June
For Ethereum, the price decline was more significant after being affected by the war. ETH price dropped from $2,536 at the beginning of the month to $2,228, a decline of 12.1%. Correspondingly, Ethereum spot ETF funds experienced net outflows, indicating increased short-term risk-averse sentiment, with a cumulative net outflow of about $80 million in June.
[Rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the specific terminology and technical details of the original text.]Extremely Low Financing Price: Each new project raises funds with a market value of 42,425 virtual tokens (equivalent to $224,000), allowing users to participate at extremely low prices, with huge potential profit space after project launch.
Linear Token Unlocking: Unlike MEME on PumpFun, Virtual's new project tokens are not fully unlocked after opening, but instead have a transparent token economic model with phased unlocking similar to VC coins. Additionally, to prevent project teams from dumping tokens, raised funds are not directly given to the project team but are fully injected into the initial liquidity pool.
Low New Project Risk: If a user's participated project fails to raise funds successfully, the full amount will be refunded. Virtual launches only a few new projects per day, which generally ensures higher quality and lower user participation risk compared to MEME.
Reducing Project Rug Probability: Virtual sets a 1% fee, with 70% returned to the project team. This incentive model motivates project teams to enhance trading activity rather than short-term cash-out, forming a virtuous ecological closed loop.
However, as platform popularity rises, early users frequently obtain short-term high returns by selling immediately after new project launches, causing massive selling pressure on new projects and disrupting overall ecosystem stability. To address this, Virtual introduced a "green lock mechanism" in mid-June, imposing mandatory lock-up periods on new project participants during which tokens cannot be sold, with violation resulting in suspension of point accumulation. While this mechanism helps suppress early selling and extend project lifecycle, it significantly alters the original speculative logic. User profit cycles are forcibly extended, capital efficiency decreases, and market enthusiasm experiences a periodic recession. Virtual's price entered a downward trend in mid-June, falling from its peak to $1.69, a decline of over 37%.
VI. Next Month Outlook
1. Pumpfun: $4 Billion Valuation Token Auction Again Delayed
The Pumpfun token auction originally scheduled for late June has been postponed again, currently expected to occur in mid-July. This marks multiple delays since the token issuance was first proposed last year. Reportedly, Pumpfun plans to raise $1 billion at a $4 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) and plans to airdrop 10% of tokens for community incentives.
Since its launch, Pumpfun has generated approximately $700 million in revenue through low fees and bonding curve mechanisms, becoming one of the most profitable projects on Solana. However, its ecosystem faces multiple trust challenges including rampant bot trading, product innovation stagnation, and unclear fund usage. In mid-June, the platform and founder's social accounts were banned on X, further spreading false rumors about "regulatory intervention" and "founder arrest", amplifying market doubts. Whether this high-valuation financing can bring structural breakthroughs to the Solana ecosystem or become another capital harvesting event remains controversial.
2. Coinbase Advances Base Chain Integration, JPMorgan Pilots "Deposit Tokens"
Coinbase is currently promoting deep integration of the Base chain into its main application, having launched Coinbase Verified Pools, allowing KYC users to directly interact with Base DApps using Coinbase account balances without complex wallet switching and on-chain transfer processes. They've announced Uniswap and Aerodrome as DEX platforms for on-chain trading. Although the feature is in early stages, this direction aligns with the current trend of centralized exchanges promoting on-chain and off-chain integration. For example, Binance enables direct on-chain token purchases through its Alpha system; Bybit launched Byreal to provide exchange users DeFi functionality for trading on-chain popular tokens and Solana assets. A one-stop trading experience between centralized exchanges and on-chain trading has become an important platform evolution direction.
Simultaneously, JPMorgan is piloting "deposit tokens" JPMD on the Base chain as a compliant digital dollar tool for institutions, backed by bank deposits and limited to permissioned use. From an industry perspective, Coinbase and Base's combination strengthens its compliant chain positioning and entry-level advantages. If future application-level integration is achieved, it could significantly expand the on-chain active user base. JPMorgan's pilot reflects the positive influence of the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, with traditional institutions beginning to layout the on-chain dollar track. Under the current trend of gradually relaxing policies, this might inject new variables into the compliant stablecoin competitive landscape. Both can be viewed as important signals of the "centralized institutions and on-chain ecosystem" trend, warranting close attention to their subsequent large-scale implementation and policy interaction effects.
