Matrixport: Bitcoin's technical support is solid, and the Fed's dovish tone provides mild upward support

Mars Finance News: On June 27, Matrixport released a weekly report stating that Powell released a hawkish signal at the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, but within less than a week, the Fed's overall tone turned dovish, with multiple board members successively expressing relaxed views. Powell also appeared more moderate during this week's congressional hearing. This shift may be influenced by political pressure, with President Trump openly criticizing the Fed's tightening stance shortly after the meeting, forcing the Fed to quickly adjust its external wording. Inflation has fallen to 2.38%, just a step away from the Fed's 2% target, and the basis for continued inaction is gradually weakening. Last Friday, Board Member Waller hinted that the July FOMC meeting might discuss rate cuts, and Board Member Bowman shared the same view on Monday. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee further downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, reinforcing market expectations of a "Fed dovish turn". Although Powell and some economists had warned that tariffs might push inflation back above 3%, this has not materialized. The unemployment rate has also remained stable at 4.2% for nearly 12 consecutive months, contrary to previous expectations of a softening job market. Powell did not refute dovish remarks and stated that rate cuts might be brought forward as long as inflation remains moderate. While the probability of a July rate cut remains low, the Fed will likely signal potential policy adjustments for September at the July 30 meeting. Considering that most corporate buybacks will be paused in July, the earnings season may become one of the key variables driving market sentiment. After the U.S. military's airstrike on Iran earlier this week, Bitcoin briefly explored the 21-week moving average ($98,532), which serves as both a critical technical support level and a bull-bear watershed. If the price fails to return above the moving average in time, the market may face summer adjustment risks. Maintaining the "seasonal range oscillation" baseline and expecting the Fed's dovish turn to provide moderate upward support for Bitcoin, the risk-reward ratio for buying on dips may further improve if subsequent rate cut signals become more clear.