Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market value is $3.31 trillion, with BTC accounting for 64.8%, at $2.14 trillion.The stablecoin market value is $252.7 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.36%, of which USDT accounts for 62.47%.
This week, BTC's price has been oscillating upward, currently at $108,000; ETH has been range-bound, currently at $2,494.
CoinMarketCap Among the top 200 projects, a small portion rose while most declined, including: SEI with a 7-day increase of 31.68%, PENGU with a 7-day increase of 19.47%, MOVE with a 7-day increase of 39.06%, and DOG with a 7-day increase of 22.29%.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow: $2.216 billion; US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $283.8 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on June 27 was 49 (higher than last week), with market sentiment: 5 days neutral, 2 days fearful.
Market Forecast:
This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, with significant net inflows into US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. BTC and ETH maintained an oscillating upward trend. The RSI index is 47.9, showing a neutral stance. The Fear and Greed Index is primarily neutral. This week, Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony suggested potential rate cuts if data stabilizes, boosting the market with BTC price returning above $107,000.
This week, South Korea initiated a regulatory amendment for digital assets. More listed companies are following the Strategy to establish BTC strategic reserves. The probability of a Fed rate cut in July is only 20.7%. If PCE and other data stabilize, a September rate cut is possible. BTC price is expected to range between $103,000-$109,000 next week, with a recommendation for small-scale buying on dips. In July, without major macro policy impacts, the market will likely maintain a range-bound oscillation until the US stablecoin law is officially enacted or the Fed cuts rates, which could trigger a significant rally. Next week, attention should focus on US tariff agreement policies.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Review
1. On June 23, Circle's total market value has now exceeded the total market value of its issued stablecoin USDC;
2. On June 24, US President Trump stated that the announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel was "a beautiful day for the world". When asked how long the ceasefire would last, Trump said: I think the ceasefire is indefinite. It will continue;
3. On June 24, Binance founder CZ responded to "a team of crypto hedge fund executives planning to raise $100 million through a controlled listed company to invest in BNB to establish a BNB version of MicroStrategy", saying that multiple companies are already attempting this;
4. On June 23, Eyenovia, Inc. (Nasdaq: EYEN) announced signing a Securities Purchase Agreement (SPA) with institutional qualified investors for a $50 million public equity private placement (PIPE);
5. On June 23, cryptocurrency trading platform OKX, after returning to the US market in April this year, is considering an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the United States;
6. On June 24, Guotai Junan International announced that its subsidiary Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (Stock Code: 1788.HK) was officially approved by the Hong Kong SFC to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services. After the upgrade, customers can directly trade cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins like USDT on its platform;
7. On June 25, the "SOL version of MicroStrategy" DeFi Development Corp (formerly Janover) launched a WIF verification node, planning to share WIF staking income and other verification node rewards with the community;
8. On June 26, Coinbase announced the upcoming launch of US Perpetual-Style Futures on its Coinbase Derivatives trading platform, a product that retains the core functions of global perpetual contracts while fully complying with US regulatory standards;
9. On June 26, White House Digital Asset Policy Advisor Bo Hines confirmed that the US is working on infrastructure for strategic Bitcoin reserves;
10. On June 27, Dinari, a startup providing blockchain-based US stock trading services, has obtained broker-dealer registration for its subsidiary. The company stated this makes it the first tokenized stock platform approved in the US.
Macroeconomic Landscape
1. On June 25, Fed Chair Powell stated that future trade agreements might allow the Fed to consider rate cuts. On the same day, the New York City mayor announced a cryptocurrency plan to potentially pay municipal service fees with cryptocurrencies;
2. On June 26, Cboe BZX Exchange submitted a 19b-4 application to the SEC for the Canary PENGU ETF;
3. On June 27, according to CME "Fed Watch": 79.3% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July, 20.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. 8.2% probability of maintaining rates in September, 73.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and 18.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut;
4. On June 27, South Korean Democratic Party lawmaker Min Byung-deok initiated an amendment to the "Capital Market and Financial Investment Business Act" aimed at incorporating digital assets into the basic assets and trust property of financial investment products. The amendment will allow digital assets like Bitcoin to be basic assets for financial products like ETFs and provide legal basis for trustees to custody and manage digital assets, a key campaign promise of President Lee Jae-myung;
5. On June 26, Australian ASX-listed AI biotech company Opyl announced launching a Bitcoin treasury strategy to rescue its financial crisis. The company purchased about 2 BTC worth approximately $214,500 through the ASX-listed DigitalX Bitcoin ETF, supported by a non-dilutive loan from SOL Strategies chairman Tony G, with a maximum limit of $1.3 million at a 6.5% annual interest rate. Opyl had only $64,000 in cash at the end of Q1;
6. On June 27, UK-listed company Vinanz again acquired 5.85 BTC, with a total holding of 65.03 BTC, at a slightly higher average purchase price of $98,200;
7. On June 28, US President Trump stated, "We can extend or shorten the tariff agreement's July 9 deadline."
ETF
According to statistics, from June 23 to June 27,US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow: $2.216 billion; as of June 27, GBTC (Grayscale) has outflowed a total of $23.203 billion, currently holding $19.786 billion, IBIT (BlackRock) currently holding $74.066 billion. Total US Bitcoin spot ETF market value: $135.266 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $283.8 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Announcements
1. EthCC 8 will be held from June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Cannes, France;
2. IVS2025 KYOTO will be held from July 2 to 4, 2025, in Kyoto, Japan.
Project Progress
1. Circle Paymaster function fees will be waived before June 30, which supports users paying gas fees with USDC on Arbitrum and Base networks, and charges users 10% of gas fees per transaction;
2. Ethereum Foundation's Devconnect Scholar Program application deadline is June 30, with 2025 scholar types including Ethereum community organizers, legal and public sector professionals, journalists, artists, developers, and other builders, totaling 100 people;
3. Kita Nippon Spinning plans to launch crypto asset business in early July after shareholder meeting approval on June 30, intending to hold Bitcoin and issue an independent token;
4. Decentralized AI market Lightchain AI mainnet will go live in July;
5. Web3 social platform Noice announced the distribution plan for 2 billion Noice community pool tokens, with the first airdrop starting on July 4, distributing 10% (200 million tokens), with four subsequent monthly airdrops continuing until November.
Important Events
1. Nigeria SEC's new crypto marketing rules will take effect on June 30, requiring VASP and KOL to obtain approval for promotion, with crypto influencers needing a "no-objection authorization" from the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission before publishing digital asset advertisements. Non-compliance may result in penalties, such as a minimum fine of 10 million Nigerian Naira (approximately $6,400) or up to three years imprisonment;
2. California's Digital Financial Assets Law imposes stricter regulations on businesses conducting cryptocurrency operations, mandating individuals and companies obtain a license from the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) to engage in digital financial asset business. The law requires licensees to maintain records for 5 years, including a general ledger saved at least monthly, listing all assets, liabilities, capital, income, and expenses;
3. July 4, 2026, marks the 250th anniversary of the signing of the US Declaration of Independence.
Token Unlocks
1. Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on June 30, valued at approximately $16.85 million, representing 1.79% of circulating supply;
2. Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens on July 1, valued at approximately $117 million, representing 1.39% of circulating supply;
3. dYdX (DYDX) will unlock 4.16 million tokens on July 1, valued at approximately $2.02 million, representing 0.56% of circulating supply;
4. EigenLayer (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on July 2, valued at approximately $1.43 million, representing 0.41% of circulating supply;
5. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on July 2, valued at approximately $10.53 million, representing 0.67% of circulating supply;
6. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on July 4, valued at approximately $1.35 million, representing 0.22% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors of different levels through comprehensive crypto industry trend analysis, multi-dimensional potential project assessment, round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring, combined with bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy livestreams and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news updates. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.
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