Author: Mask, W3C DAO
A financial experiment born from the 36 trillion USD national debt crisis is attempting to transform the crypto world into a "debt absorber" for US Treasury bonds, while the global monetary system is quietly being reshaped.
In the US Congress, a bill called the "Beautiful Big Act" is being vigorously advanced. The latest Deutsche Bank report characterizes it as the United States' "Pennsylvania Plan" to address massive debt - by mandating stablecoins to purchase US Treasury bonds and incorporating digital dollars into the national debt financing system.
This bill forms a policy combination with the 'GENIUS Act', which has already mandated that all USD stablecoins must be 100% backed by cash, US Treasury bonds, or bank deposits. This marks a fundamental change in stablecoin regulation. The bill requires stablecoin issuers to maintain reserves at a 1:1 USD ratio or in highly liquid assets (such as short-term US Treasury bonds), prohibits algorithmic stablecoins, and establishes a dual-track federal and state regulatory framework. Its objectives are clear:
Alleviating US Treasury bond pressure: Forcing stablecoin reserve assets to invest in the US Treasury bond market. According to US Treasury Department predictions, global stablecoin market value will reach 2 trillion USD by 2028, with 1.6 trillion USD flowing into US Treasury bonds, providing a new financing channel for the US fiscal deficit.
Consolidating US dollar hegemony: Currently, 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar. The bill creates a closed loop of "USD → stablecoin → global payment → US Treasury bond backflow", strengthening the dollar's "on-chain coinage rights" in the digital economy.
Promoting rate cut expectations: The Deutsche Bank report indicates that the bill pressures the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce US Treasury bond financing costs while guiding the US dollar to weaken and enhance US export competitiveness.
First Layer: US Treasury-Stablecoin Death Spiral. If users collectively redeem USDT, Tether needs to sell US Treasuries for cash → US Treasury prices plummet → Other stablecoin reserves depreciate → Comprehensive collapse. In 2022, USDT briefly de-pegged due to market panic, and similar future events may impact the US Treasury market due to scale expansion.
Second Layer: Risk Amplification in Decentralized Finance. After stablecoins flow into the DeFi ecosystem, multi-layer leveraging occurs through liquidity mining, lending, and staking. The reStaking mechanism allows assets to be repeatedly staked across different protocols, exponentially amplifying risks. If underlying asset values crash, it may trigger a chain of liquidations.
Third Layer: Loss of Monetary Policy Independence. The Deutsche Bank report directly points out that the bill will "pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates". The Trump administration indirectly obtains "money printing rights" through stablecoins, potentially undermining the Fed's independence—Powell has recently rejected political pressure, suggesting no hope for a July rate cut.
More challenging is that the US debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 100%, with the US Treasury's own credit risk rising. If Treasury yields continue to invert or default expectations emerge, stablecoins' hedging attributes will be precarious.
Global New Chessboard, Blockchain Reconstruction of Economic Order
Facing US actions, three global camps are forming:
Regulatory Convergence Camp: Canadian banking regulators announced readiness to regulate stablecoins, with frameworks being developed. This echoes US regulatory trends, forming a North American collaborative stance. Coinbase will launch US-style perpetual contracts in July, settling funding rates with stablecoins.
Innovation Defense Camp: Hong Kong and Singapore show divergent regulatory paths. Hong Kong takes a cautious tightening approach, positioning stablecoins as "virtual bank alternatives"; Singapore implements a "stablecoin sandbox", allowing experimental issuance. This difference may trigger regulatory arbitrage, weakening Asia's overall competitiveness.
Alternative Solution Camp: In high-inflation countries, people use stablecoins as "hedging assets", eroding local currency circulation and central bank monetary policy effectiveness. These countries might accelerate developing local stablecoins or multilateral digital currency bridge projects, but face severe trade challenges.
Moreover, the international system will undergo transformation: from unipolar to "hybrid architecture", with current reform proposals presenting three paths:
Diversified Monetary Alliance (highest probability): US dollar, Euro, and RMB form a tri-polar reserve currency, supplemented by regional settlement systems (like ASEAN multilateral currency swaps).
Digital Currency Competition: 130 countries are developing central bank digital currencies (CBDC), with digital RMB already piloting cross-border trade, potentially reshaping payment efficiency but facing sovereign transfer challenges.
Extreme Fragmentation: If geopolitical conflicts escalate, a fragmented US dollar, Euro, and BRICS currency camp may form, dramatically increasing global trade costs.
PayPal CEO Alex Chriss highlights the key bottleneck: "From a consumer perspective, there's currently no real incentive driving stablecoin adoption". The company is introducing reward mechanisms to solve the adoption challenge, while decentralized exchanges like XBIT address trust issues through smart contracts.
The Deutsche Bank report predicts that with the "Beautiful Bill" implementation, the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates, significantly weakening the US dollar. By 2030, when stablecoins hold $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries, the global financial system may have quietly undergone a blockchain reconstruction—US dollar hegemony embedded in code within every blockchain transaction, with risks dispersed through decentralized networks to every participant.
Technological innovation is never a neutral tool. When the US dollar dons blockchain's attire, the old order's game is playing out on a new battlefield!
