Since Iran and Israel officially ceased fire, BTC quickly rebounded, surging from the low point of $98,000 to $109,000, just a step away from its historical high. Market sentiment warmed up, reigniting discussions about whether the "Altcoin surge" season will arrive, and disagreements among traders intensified.
Supporters argue that historical experience cannot be ignored - whenever Bitcoin's market dominance rises and then falls, the Altcoin season quietly arrives. Currently, BTC's market dominance is approaching 66%, and once it breaks through 70% and reaches an inflection point, it may trigger a comprehensive Altcoin explosion. Opponents point out that current market liquidity remains fragile, with conservative funds, and many Altcoins lack fundamental support, with "air coins" flooding the market, making a widespread rally difficult.
Despite different views, traders reached a consensus on one point: the Altcoin season will not truly arrive in the short term. The current market is still dominated by Bitcoin, with a defensive market structure. To truly welcome the Altcoin season, they might need to wait a bit longer.
Fundamental Analysis Group
@ohyishi
Many US stock tickers bridged to the crypto market essentially reverse-drained crypto market liquidity and transferred it to US stocks. Some Altcoins that were already valueless now seem even more like air.
@timotimo007
Onchain US stocks seem to be drawing liquidity from the crypto circle, aiming to absorb liquidity from normal channels wanting to buy US stocks, including crypto circle money, third-world money, black money... This is bearish for most Altcoins, making the already distant Altcoin season even further away. Altcoins are essentially air, without value, and only fools would take over, but fools won't remain foolish forever.
Technical Analysis Group
@biupa
Ethereum and some Altcoins (like SOL) are performing strongly, with potential to test $2,500 (ETH) or $150~$155 (SOL). Strong Altcoins like $AAVE, $Fartcoin, $HYPE are worth watching, possibly creating a structural market movement.
However, before breaking $110,000 (BTC), he doesn't believe the market has entered the "main upward wave".
Market divergence exists: some are bearish (expecting a big drop), some are bullish (main upward wave continues), making trading quite challenging.
@joao_wedson
In the past 60 days, the index has been in the Bitcoin season, meaning Bitcoin has outperformed most Altcoins. But this isn't necessarily bad - it might be a good opportunity to layout Altcoins while they're lagging. However, history tells us these cycles repeat - the market may be about to react. Be especially careful when shorting at this time. Don't lose money on the bearish path before the rebound arrives.
The chart shows that whenever the index rises over 20%, it can surge rapidly up to 80% in a short time, as "lagging" Altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin.
@MikybullCrypto
BTC's dominance is 65.77%, maintaining an upward trend, indicating it's still a "Bitcoin season". Historically, once Bitcoin's dominance reaches over 70% and then significantly drops, a "comprehensive Altcoin season" emerges.
Data Analysis Group
@Cato_CryptoM
Market data shows:
1. Market cap value hasn't changed much, but Altcoin proportion increased slightly, with Altcoins showing some optimism since the weekend
2. Trading volume continues to decrease, lower than last Thursday's record, indicating weak market liquidity
3. Retained funds increased by 200 million, currently totaling 262.6 billion
4. USDT: Official website shows market cap of 157.693 billion, increased by 476 million compared to last Thursday, with Asian funds continuing to flow in, but trading volume significantly dropped
5. USDC: According to the official website, USDC had a net inflow of 300 million last week, with market cap showing little change, US region fund inflow weakening, and trader trading willingness significantly reduced.
Assessment: Although Altcoins show slight movement, overall data remains not too optimistic. With low liquidity, market volatility increases, fund activity weakens, and US traders' trading willingness drops, making it difficult to support sustained Altcoin activity.
@CryptoPainter_X
The distribution of funding rates is quite interesting...
On one side, the market collectively doesn't look favorably on BTC's subsequent market, on the other side, Altcoins are cautiously optimistic...
It's clear that market funds' interest is shifting - is there still a glimmer of hope for the Altcoin season?
@JamesWynnReal
Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D) may create an unprecedented new high. This could significantly delay our arrival at the true Altcoin season.
The Altcoin season will arrive when BTC.D falls and prepares to slow down. In his view, Bitcoin must reach at least $120,000 to $140,000 to do this.
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