Can Bit's price stand firm at the $108,000 mark before the end of this week? This is the question thrown to traders by the prediction platform Myriad. As the deadline approaches, traders are facing a critical moment of choice.
Just yesterday, when Bit's trading price was maintained around $107,640, breaking through this mark seemed to be a sure win. At that time, only a 0.33% increase ($360) was needed to achieve the goal, and the betting ratio on the Myriad platform was basically balanced, with the bearish side leading by a slim 50.8% advantage.
However, the situation changed dramatically today. As Bit retreated to the key level of $106,000 (a price point to focus on in July), the odds on the Myriad platform underwent a dramatic change. Predictors now believe there is a 69% probability that Bit cannot break through $108,000 before July 4, suggesting the week may end with a bearish tone.
So, what mysteries does the chart data reveal about Bit's trend?
Bit Price: Signals Revealed by the Chart
When Bit hovers below the psychological mark of $108,000, the core issue is not whether the price can touch that point, but whether it can close firmly above it - there is an essential difference between the two.
By analyzing the 4-hour K-line chart, it can be found that in the 30 trading periods since June 25, Bit has only closed above $108,000 three times. More notably, after June 9, Bit has not achieved a daily closing breakthrough of this mark - historically, Bit has only closed above this threshold 8 times.
However, for intraday traders, the technical analysis at the 4-hour level can provide key insights for this short-term prediction:
From a purely technical perspective, Bit is facing a typical dilemma of being "within reach yet far away". The 4-hour chart shows that multiple attempts to break through the $107,500-$108,000 range have been met with selling pressure. These failed breakthrough attempts have left obvious upper shadows on the K-line, indicating that the buyers' attempts to push prices higher have been repeatedly intercepted by sellers at the resistance level.
This proximity is highly deceptive. Although in the cryptocurrency market where daily volatility often reaches 3-5%, a 2% increase may seem insignificant, the repeated failures to break through this key level suggest deeper market mechanisms. For position traders, effectively breaking through this resistance would mean that the bulls have sufficient momentum to push prices to new highs in the short term.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 17, far below the 25 threshold required to confirm trend strength. This weak reading indicates that Bit is in a trendless fluctuation state, which is particularly unfavorable when trying to break through a key resistance. A low ADX environment typically leads to price oscillation between support and resistance levels, rather than achieving a decisive breakthrough.
Specifically to the current trend, Bit has been oscillating in the $107,000-$108,000 range since June 25: sometimes below this level, with fewer breakthroughs, but always returning to the horizontal channel, which confirms the judgment of a lack of a clear short-term trend and validates the accuracy of the ADX indicator.
The squeeze momentum indicator shows that the market is brewing bearish momentum, indicating that the downward trend dominates in a shorter cycle. This bearish pressure is directly contrary to the bullish momentum needed to break through $108,000. In short, traders currently seem more inclined to believe that the market will see a bearish pullback rather than continue the long-term upward trend.
However, one technical indicator still retains a glimmer of hope: the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This indicator guides trading decisions by calculating the average price over a specific period. Continuing to observe the 4-hour chart, the 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, maintaining a bullish "golden cross" structure. This arrangement suggests that although short-term momentum is weakening, the overall trend remains upward.
However, the price has fallen below the 50-period EMA, showing short-term bearish pressure.
Another valuable indicator is the visible range volume distribution. The current price is trading above the control point, which is usually a bullish signal. But since the price is also near the resistance level and lacks momentum, a pullback (i.e., "mean reversion") is more likely.
The volume distribution chart can highlight the most active trading price areas - these areas often form natural support or resistance because traders typically set take-profit or stop-loss orders here. For example, when you establish a position at a certain price, you might set a stop-loss at the same level to control risk.
Although the current price is in the buying zone for most traders (slightly bullish), the lack of directional clarity is insufficient to judge market sentiment.
Weekend Effect
A key factor often overlooked is that July 4 falls on a Friday in US time, while the prediction deadline is at 23:59 UTC (already early Saturday morning for most global markets).
Weekend trading is typically characterized by reduced institutional participation, overall volume contraction, and widening bid-ask spreads, with essentially only cryptocurrency "die-hards" remaining active, as this market never sleeps.
This environment makes sustained breakthroughs at key resistance levels more difficult - fundamentally lacking sufficient buying to absorb selling pressure.
Conclusion: Easy to Touch the Top, Hard to Hold
Strictly based on chart analysis, the probability of Bit reaching $108,000 before the July 4 deadline remains high - after all, it only requires less than a 2% increase. But to close firmly above this mark? Currently, the hope seems slim. Here's why:
- Historical Rejection Rate: Charts show at least 4-5 recent attempts to break through this area have failed, forming a statistical precedent.
- Momentum Divergence: Although the price is near the high point, momentum indicators (RSI, ADX) show diminishing power - a typical top divergence pattern.
- Time Decay: As the deadline approaches and momentum dissipates, the probability of success decreases with each passing hour.
- Volume Requirements: Breaking through and holding a new price level requires sustained volume increase, but the weak ADX reading indicates insufficient volume.
- Weekend Liquidity Drought: The deadline coincides with a key moment of institutional fund withdrawal.
Of course, the above analysis is premised on the market environment remaining unchanged. But this is the cryptocurrency market, where anything is possible. When Bit is just 0.33% away from the $108,000 target, even a single large order, political statement, whale movement, or social media sentiment can completely change the outcome. Although the chart suggests the resistance level may hold, in the face of such a small difference, the predictive power of traditional technical analysis is inevitably discounted.
Key Price Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $108,000 (prediction target)
- Key Support: $105,000 (psychological level)
- Next Resistance After Breakthrough: $110,000 (previous high area)
For prediction market participants, this technical pattern suggests a binary result leaning towards failure - similar to opening an over-leveraged long position. But as the deadline approaches, external catalysts are likely to play a decisive role. It is recommended to closely monitor volume growth and early signals of sustained breakthrough, such as ADX breaking through 20, while being alert to sudden news that might temporarily invalidate technical analysis.
This article is translated from Jose Antonio Lanz, original title: Moon or Doom: Will Bit See Fireworks on July 4
