I. Pump Valuation of $4 Billion Token Issuance
On July 9th, Pump.fun officially announced the launch of its platform token PUMP. PUMP has a maximum supply of 1 trillion tokens, with 33% of tokens to be used for initial token offering fundraising, according to official disclosure. The private and public sale rounds are uniformly priced at $0.004 per token, with an overall valuation of $4 billion and full release during the initial token offering. This means PUMP will have potential selling pressure of up to $1.32 billion after opening. As of July 11th, its pre-trading price on Hyperliquid and Binance was around $0.0051, approximately 22% premium over the fundraising price.
Pump.fun's token issuance announcement added further pressure to an already tense on-chain sentiment. With the current market facing liquidity tightening and low morale, Pump.fun, as the leading MEME launchpad, has seen a significant decline in daily revenue and user activity compared to its peak, with market share gradually being eroded by new competitors. In this context, its high-valuation public offering is widely considered to have structural issues: the token lacks actual value, has significant early selling pressure, lacks transparency in team unlock plans, and apparently overestimates valuation during the Altcoin downturn. Additionally, due to the team's continuous selling of fee revenues instead of reinvesting in the community, many are concerned that this high-valuation fundraising is more like an exit liquidity operation rather than a long-term development plan, with the team lacking motivation and ability to support the market.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach]Third, at the macro market level, although Bit has recently reached a new high, driving an overall recovery in risk appetite, the Altcoin market remains in a tight liquidity state. As of July 11, according to CMC data, the Altcoin market value has returned to 1.3 trillion in May this year, and the current market has not seen a structural change (data source: CMC). Therefore, users remain cautious about tokens with high valuations and high selling pressure. Under conditions lacking sufficient narrative space and fund relay, PUMP faces a high risk of price collapse;
Fourth, Pump.fun's public offering round has a quota of up to $600 million, far exceeding industry norms. Most potential buyers are expected to subscribe directly through the primary market, leading to severe insufficient buying in the secondary market. Meanwhile, 33% of tokens will be unlocked for primary financing (approximately $1.32 billion) upon opening. In a market lacking continuous relay funds, early investors' selling will further intensify short-term price pressure and liquidity risks.
Overall, while Pump.fun's token issuance continues its brand influence, under multiple pressures of increasingly fierce market competition, lack of token mechanism support, and conservative fund sentiment, its high valuation and high selling pressure structure easily amplifies market uncertainty. PUMP's future performance will largely depend on whether the project can timely construct a more sustainable token value system after secondary market pressure is released, and reinforce its market leadership and user confidence through product innovation or ecosystem integration.
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