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ToggleCan XLM Follow XRP's Surge and Reach $1 Soon: Fact or Fiction?
With an 87% increase in the past week, strong buying pressure, and positive technical signals, XLM is moving closer to the possibility of breaking its All-Time-High (ATH) in 2025.
Key Points:
- XLM has reached an annual high of $0.52, with an immediate target set at the cycle's peak of $0.63.
- Peter Brandt says XLM has the most optimistic chart, with $0.20 as support and $1 as a breakout level.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) surged to $0.52 on Friday, recording an impressive 87% increase in 7 days. This surge reflects similar momentum from XRP - a currency that recently touched its yearly high at $3.65. With a 100-day correlation coefficient of 0.95, XLM may continue to benefit from XRP's price increase trend.
Is XLM the Most Optimistic Chart Currently?
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes XLM possesses one of the most positive technical structures among major crypto assets. In a recent X post, he shared XLM's monthly chart and emphasized: "XLM must hold the April dip and must close firmly above $1. If these conditions are not met, the chart will remain in a consolidation state."
According to Brandt's analysis, XLM's critical support zone is at the April dip, around $0.20 - nearly 58% lower than the current market price. Meanwhile, reclaiming and maintaining above the $1 threshold remains a significant challenge. Although XLM's historical peak is $0.93 (set in 2018), in the current phase, nearby resistance zones around $0.62 and $0.80 could create substantial selling pressure, hindering the potential to break to the $1 mark.
Technical analysis of the XLM/BTC pair also provides additional insight to reinforce positive prospects. XLM has continuously weakened against Bitcoin since the previous cycle, however, a clear breakout above 0.000006 BTC could mark a notable trend reversal. If this occurs, XLM might enter a phase of outperformance compared to the overall market, opening possibilities for price discovery in Q4 2025.
XLM Futures Contract Open Interest Reaches Record High of $589 Million
XLM's Futures Contract open interest has reached a new record high of $589 million, reflecting a clear increase in derivative market momentum. Notably, the funding rate remains neutral compared to Q4/2024, indicating the market is currently balanced, with no overbought or oversold signs - an environment typically preceding significant price movements.
Interestingly, the recent surge appears primarily driven by the spot market, with the total Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) jumping from $2 billion to $2.89 billion over the past three months. This is particularly noteworthy as XLM's price mostly fluctuated between $0.20 and $0.30 since March, suggesting large investors might have been quietly accumulating during this period.
Supporting the accumulation hypothesis is data from the 90-day buyer CVD indicator. During the price consolidation period, buyer CVD consistently dominated, reflecting strong active buying pressure exceeding selling pressure. Currently, this indicator has returned to a neutral state, and based on historical observations, XLM often experiences its most significant breakouts immediately after CVD neutralization following a buyer-dominated cycle.
The combination of record open interest, increasing spot CVD during consolidation, and neutral buyer CVD indicates a potential breakout scenario as the market prepares for further growth in Q3-4 of 2025.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trade carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
