$7 Billion Dogecoin (Doge) Now on Exchanges—Is a Sell-Off Imminent?

Dogecoin price still increased by 39% compared to last week, but the recent price drop may not just be a small adjustment.

With over $7 billion in DOGE value currently on exchanges, the highest in six months, increasing selling pressure could push the price lower. Historical trends and HODL Waves contraction suggest this correction could be longer than expected.

Exchange balance reaches six-month high

One of the biggest warning signs currently is the increase in Dogecoin balance on exchanges. As of 07/21/2025, over 26.1 billion DOGE are on centralized exchanges, the highest in six months. At $0.27, this represents over $7 billion in DOGE value waiting to move.

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History shows that when DOGE balance on exchanges spikes (local peak), it usually means investors are preparing to sell. The more DOGE on exchanges, the easier it is to withdraw, which could create selling pressure and push prices lower.

We've seen this before:

• 05/11: Exchange balance peaked at 23.76 billion DOGE. Dogecoin price dropped from $0.23 to $0.21 within six days. An 8.6% decrease!
• 05/23: Balance reached 23.86 billion DOGE. Price continued to fall from $0.225 to $0.15 over a month. A 33% decrease!

If this pattern repeats, a drop from $0.265 to $0.22, or even lower, could be possible.

HODL Waves show declining investor confidence

Along with the increase in exchange balance, HODL Waves, which measures the time DOGE sits in wallets, is also turning negative.

Between 05/16 and 07/21:

• 3-6 month band decreased from 15.06% to 6.44%
• 1 week-1 month band decreased from 4.681 to 2.94%

This means medium and short-term investors are leaving their positions. Fewer wallets are holding DOGE long-term, and are more likely moving to exchanges, consistent with the previously mentioned selling pressure. HODL Waves show investor commitment. When these waves contract, it often reflects doubt about continued price increases.

Dogecoin price development: Important support level threatened

From a Dogecoin price perspective, $0.24 is noteworthy. Current support is around $0.25, but the structure will weaken if DOGE slips below $0.24, an 8% adjustment. Below that, the $0.22 area opens up, marking a dangerous zone with multiple support touches in the May cycle.

The two most recent times exchange balance spiked like this, Dogecoin adjusted by 8% and 33% respectively. If a similar pattern occurs, dropping from $0.265 to the $0.22–$0.20 range (two important Fib levels) is possible. The entire price structure could shift to a downward trend if Dogecoin breaks below $0.17 (0.236 Fib level), which would mean a 33% decrease from the current level.

What could reverse this price decline hypothesis is a move above $0.28, driven by a reduction in DOGE exchange balance and an increase in new investors.