Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Trump administration will raise the basic tariff rate to 15%

Odaily Odaily News: David Mericle, chief economist of Goldman Sachs in the United States, expects the basic "reciprocal" tariff rate in the United States to increase from 10% to 15%, including 50% tariffs on copper and key minerals - a move that could increase inflationary pressures and curb economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate "initial observations" on the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its forecast for 2027 from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle said tariffs are expected to push up core prices by 1.7% cumulatively over 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs accordingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. (Jinshi)