With billions in valuation, token issuance time is expected, and an average transaction amount greater than 500U can make you a top 10% user, this airdrop feast is worth looking forward to.
Written by: @mattdotfi
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
This article will analyze whether it is still worth participating in the Polymarket airdrop mining at this stage.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction platform based on the Polygon Block, allowing users to bet on events by choosing two possible scenarios. Polymarket gained public attention due to the 2024 US Presidential Election betting event. During the 2024 US Presidential Election, the odds on Polymarket showed that Donald Trump was more likely to be successful than Kamala Harris, and many people placed bets on Polymarket, which became increasingly popular after Trump's successful election.
Polymarket currently does not have an official token, but the team has repeatedly hinted that they will issue a token. They have completed three rounds of crypto venture capital financing, including the C round last week. Although we know little about this round, sources from June indicated that they hoped to achieve a valuation of over $1 billion in a $200 million financing.
Source: Crunchbase
About the Airdrop
The Polymarket token with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1 billion seems to be a market consensus, but we still need to consider the following factors:
Conservative estimates predict that at most 10% of the total supply will be airdropped to traders, as they are the only eligible people to receive the airdrop, and Polymarket does not have liquidity providers.
The continuity of Polymarket activity may also be important, as it means you still have enough time to participate.
The Polymarket prediction market has been running for quite a long time, and CC2Ventures had hinted that a snapshot was taken last year.
If you want to participate in airdrop mining, you need to place bets in the market. The following data can be referenced:
- Cumulative trading volume reached $15.7 billion.
- An average of 24,000 active wallets place bets on Polymarket daily.
Data source: dune analytics
- Currently, 1.2 million wallets have interacted, with half having placed bets more than 5 times.
- To be among the top 10% of traders, your average bet amount must exceed $500.
Data source: dune analytics
Conclusion
If the snapshot has not been taken, to qualify for the airdrop, you should place bets in markets with advantages and most likely to develop as you expect. Additionally, to enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed $500. You may also need to bet on multiple markets and maintain at least weekly activity.
If you want to participate in this airdrop mining, you must first ensure that you can afford losses ranging from three to four digits, as over 90% of traders will lose money in the long term on any betting/trading platform. Because the expected value (EV) is high enough to offset expected losses.
In my opinion, I would only participate in airdrop mining at this stage when the token is expected to be launched with a valuation of billions of dollars, and the platform's activity and average bet amount are difficult for ordinary users to bear. Statistically, if you bet on these prediction markets, you will definitely expect to lose money in the long term.
