Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina）
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010）
As ETH price rebounds and breaks through $3,800 before falling back to above $3,500, ETH has officially entered the "moment of holders calling each other SB" - on one hand, institutions and listed companies continue to increase ETH holdings, either waiting for price appreciation or establishing strategic reserves; on the other hand, ETH POS unstaking waiting time has exceeded 11 days, reaching a historical high, with total unstaked ETH breaking through 637,000, compared to approximately 321,000 ETH waiting to be staked, which is only around 50% of the unstaked ETH total. The market has thus fallen into panic about institutional unstaking dumping, but is this really the truth? Odaily will analyze this in combination with major market perspectives for readers' reference.
Behind ETH Unstaking Waiting Time Reaching a New High: After 7 Months, ETH Returns Above $3,800
According to OKX market data, ETH price broke through $3,800 this Monday, rising to $3,858.88, compared to the last time ETH was above $3,800, which was around December 19, 2024, seven months ago.
The recovery of ETH price naturally caused a surge in the crypto market, with many whales, institutions, and even retail investors who previously bought the dips choosing to take profits, thus leading to a new high in total ETH unstaking, naturally increasing the unstaking waiting time.
According to the latest data from the validatorqueue website, as of July 24, the total ETH waiting to be unstaked is 637,450, with waiting time extended from around 9 days to 11 days and 2 hours; the total ETH waiting to be staked is approximately 321,000, with a waiting market of about 5 days and 14 hours.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach]The specific reason is: In a short period, a large amount of Aave ETH deposits were withdrawn, causing borrowing rates to soar. Cyclic loan players went from profiting from interest spreads to losses, and were forced to redeem stETH to deleverage, leading to the current situation. Aave ETH borrowing APR once spiked to 10%, and Lido stETH's current exit waiting period has been extended to 21 days (normally within a week); on-chain stETH to ETH exchange still has a discount of nearly 0.4%. Regarding the implementation of cyclic loans, Aave's collateral rate for ETH is 93%, meaning arbitrage players can even use up to 14x leverage to obtain interest spread returns, with an annual yield of around 7% under normal circumstances.
In other words, ETH's rise led to massive lending of ETH on the Aave platform, causing borrowing rates to spike; cyclic loan players discovered that their previous leverage interest spread had turned into leverage losses, and had to redeem stETH to reduce leverage, thereby increasing ETH staking demand. For a more detailed explanation of this reason, refer to Odaily's translated Galaxy article 'The Real Reason Behind $1.9 Billion ETH Collectively Queuing for Unstaking Is...'.
Reason Three: Institutional Accumulation Demand
This reason is the author's personal speculation.
According to SoSoValue data, on July 22, Ethereum spot ETF total net inflow was $534 million, the third-highest in history. Considering the recent "ETH Strategy" dispute attracting SBET, BMNR, and The Ether Machine and other listed companies and institutions' hoarding needs, the unstaking of hundreds of thousands of ETH is undoubtedly the work of large ETH holding clusters, with a high possibility that some funds will be used for ETH OTC and exchange inflows.
According to on-chain analyst Ember's monitoring, address 0x8eE previously accumulated 32,368 ETH (worth $116 million) through FalconX, and has accumulated 138,345 ETH (worth $503 million) since July 19, with an average price of $3,644; a whale/institution accumulating ETH through Kraken today added 8,223 ETH (worth $29.4 million), and has accumulated 58,156 ETH (worth $211 million) since July 14, with an average price of $3,564.
In summary, ETF net inflow and ETH strategic reserve demands provide an outlet for large-scale ETH unstaking, and ETH market demand remains robust.
Conclusion: Market Enters "ETH Holders Mutually Calling Each Other SB Moment"
Unlike the market in late June and early July, the crypto market has now entered a "mutual SB moment", especially for ETH holders.
Different from the previous market's contemptuous mockery of "ETH price continuously weak" or the E-guards' triumphant moment of "ETH price gradually rising", with BTC breaking historical highs and then pulling back below $120,000, the market has again entered a state of divergence, just like the people currently divided into ETH unstaking and waiting-to-stake camps. As Trump's "tariff stick" gradually lands, whether altcoins including ETH can continue the bull market may face a stage of judgment in early August.
Profit-taking Exit vs Continue Surging?
